Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Angers had 7 days of rest, Auxerre 7.8 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Angers39%
Draw28%
Auxerre33%
Angers39%
Draw27%
Auxerre34%
Angers38%
Draw28%
Auxerre34%
Angers32%
Draw28%
Auxerre40%
Angers40%
Draw27%
Auxerre33%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 22
Team strength
Angers
Auxerre
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
22
AttackIn forecast
39
12
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersAuxerre
0.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.64
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
55%
Scored inContext
55%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
8.45
ShotsContext
10.00
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
31%
On target shareContext
30%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
63%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.27
Shots allowedContext
11.73
5.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.55
3.64
BlocksContext
3.00
3.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
72%
Save rateContext
70%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
369
PassesContext
372
304
Accurate passesContext
300
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.64
FoulsContext
13.55
10.18
Fouls sufferedContext
14.55
1.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.18
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
50%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.50
ShotsContext
10.30
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
29%
5.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
63%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.60
BlocksContext
2.75
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
68%
Save rateContext
68%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
378
PassesContext
373
314
Accurate passesContext
301
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.65
10.30
FoulsContext
13.10
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,196 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Auxerre
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel311 km643 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,196 km | 643 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
10H. Abdelli
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
11S. Chérif
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
22F. Oppegård
92C. Akpa
4F. Sierralta
29M. Senaya
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
34R. Matondo
19D. Namaso
10L. Sinayoko
23I. Osman
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Auxerre-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.80
Auxerre · Away
0.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Monaco | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | L 0–3 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game | 4 of 18 · 0.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Angers wins2 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 19 Jan 2025Angers2–0Auxerre
- 24 Nov 2024Auxerre1–0Angers
- 12 Feb 2023Angers1–1Auxerre
- 14 Aug 2022Auxerre2–2Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.73 | 0.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.09 | 2.18 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 18% | 45% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 36% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 45% | 45% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Angers | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.27 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 27% 3/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.36 | 2.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.18 | 3.09 | |
| Match total | 2.54 | 5.73 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 5/11 | 82% 9/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Angers | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 9.10 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 5.80 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.82
Red cards0.23league 0.30
Cards 5+41%league 38%
Fouls27.7league 24.3
Penalties0.50league 0.50
Home wins50%league 50%
Angers4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L9 Mar 25A · Stade Brestois 290–21
- L26 Jan 25A · Lens0–11
- W1 Nov 24A · Monaco1–01
- L24 Aug 24A · Lille0–22
Auxerre5 with this referee
Record1-1-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W17 Aug 25H · Lorient1–03
- L17 May 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–32
- D14 Mar 25A · Nice1–13
- L1 Feb 25A · Monaco2–42
- L14 Sep 24H · Monaco0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers11 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
6
61-75
3
76-90
Auxerre11 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
6
61-75
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
