Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Angers were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Angers. Angers had 6.9 days of rest, LE Havre 6.1 and had to travel 230 km.
Away travel230 kmRest days6.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Angers41%
Draw29%
LE Havre31%
Angers42%
Draw27%
LE Havre31%
Angers42%
Draw29%
LE Havre30%
Angers34%
Draw29%
LE Havre37%
Angers41%
Draw28%
LE Havre31%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 65
Team strength
Angers
LE Havre
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
22
AttackIn forecast
20
12
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersLE Havre
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.34
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.28
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
62%
Scored inContext
55%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
8.90
ShotsContext
10.62
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.77
35%
On target shareContext
32%
5.58
Shots in the boxContext
6.57
59%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.72
Shots allowedContext
12.24
5.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.86
BlocksContext
3.63
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
75%
Save rateContext
69%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
401
PassesContext
373
333
Accurate passesContext
303
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.03
FoulsContext
12.93
10.83
Fouls sufferedContext
13.97
1.48
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
50%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.50
ShotsContext
10.40
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
33%
On target shareContext
29%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
61%
5%
ConversionContext
8%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.40
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.50
BlocksContext
3.80
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
78%
Save rateContext
76%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
416
PassesContext
376
352
Accurate passesContext
306
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.30
FoulsContext
12.30
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km220 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
LE Havre
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel230 km1,688 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 220 km | 1,688 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
20Marius Louer
27L. Rao-Lisoa
93H. Belkebla
8B. van den Boomen
15P. Capelle
7M. Sbaï
35P. Peter
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
4G. Lloris
15A. Seko
93A. Sangante
18Y. Zouaoui
19L. Gourna-Douath
14R. Ndiaye
13F. Doucouré
17S. Boufal
45I. Soumaré
25M. Samatta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- LE Havre+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-5
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 1.07
LE Havre · Away
0.50points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-9
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Angers | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Lyon | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Nice | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Monaco | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lorient | L 0–2 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Metz | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Marseille | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A | L 2–6 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 33 of 84 · 1.18 per game | 26 of 84 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Angers wins1 draws1 LE Havre wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 4 Jan 2026LE Havre2–1Angers
- 2 Feb 2025Angers1–1LE Havre
- 1 Dec 2024LE Havre0–1Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.34 | 1.28 | |
| Match goals | 2.21 | 2.10 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 28% | 34% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 34% | 48% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 45% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Angers | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.46 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.57 | 8.89 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 13/28 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 9/28 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 6/28 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.14 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 4.10 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 34% 10/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 7% 2/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Angers | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 8.20 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.10 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 65 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.46league 3.66
Red cards0.28league 0.27
Cards 5+31%league 35%
Fouls26.2league 23.8
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins37%league 48%
Angers6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W23 Nov 25A · Toulouse1–03
- D31 Aug 25H · Rennes1–12
- L5 Apr 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–13
- L7 Dec 24H · Lyon0–30
- W26 Oct 24H · Saint Etienne4–21
LE Havre7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds1
- L28 Feb 26H · Paris Saint Germain0–13
- D24 Jan 26H · Monaco0–00
- L14 Dec 25A · Lyon0–14
- W1 Sep 24H · Auxerre3–11
- L21 Apr 24H · Metz0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers29 games · scored 25 · conceded 39
1
4
0-15
5
7
16-30
2
8
31-45
5
6
46-60
3
10
61-75
9
4
76-90
LE Havre29 games · scored 24 · conceded 37
1
5
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
10
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
6
61-75
6
8
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 5 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
