Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 21). Angers had 7 days of rest, Lens 8 and had to travel 411 km.
Away travel411 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Angers23%
Draw26%
Lens51%
Angers24%
Draw25%
Lens51%
Angers23%
Draw26%
Lens51%
Angers18%
Draw24%
Lens59%
Angers23%
Draw25%
Lens52%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
Angers
Lens
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
22
AttackIn forecast
63
12
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersLens
0.85
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
62%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
8.31
ShotsContext
12.85
3.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.92
33%
On target shareContext
38%
5.08
Shots in the boxContext
9.62
57%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.80
15.00
Shots allowedContext
13.15
5.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.54
3.54
BlocksContext
4.69
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
77%
Save rateContext
74%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
378
PassesContext
429
312
Accurate passesContext
360
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.54
FoulsContext
12.92
10.69
Fouls sufferedContext
12.46
1.46
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.15
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.70
ShotsContext
11.40
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
31%
On target shareContext
40%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
57%
Box shareContext
75%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.63
14.30
Shots allowedContext
13.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.40
BlocksContext
5.00
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
72%
Save rateContext
74%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
406
PassesContext
416
337
Accurate passesContext
348
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.80
FoulsContext
13.20
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km914 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel411 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 411 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 914 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
16M. Zinga(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
10H. Abdelli
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
11S. Chérif
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lens+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 0.67
Lens · Away
1.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Marseille | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Monaco | D 1–1 H | W 4–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Metz | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game | 25 of 36 · 2.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Angers wins1 draws5 Lens wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.83
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 26 Jan 2025Lens1–0Angers
- 18 Aug 2024Angers0–1Lens
- 18 Mar 2023Lens3–0Angers
- 5 Nov 2022Angers1–2Lens
- 27 Feb 2022Angers1–2Lens
- 26 Nov 2021Lens2–2Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.85 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.54 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 15% | 62% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 46% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Angers | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 6.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.83 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.54 | 2.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.15 | 2.62 | |
| Match total | 2.69 | 4.93 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 6/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Angers | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.40 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 5.00 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.33league 3.77
Red cards0.00league 0.31
Cards 5+33%league 37%
Fouls28.2league 24.1
Penalties0.17league 0.50
Home wins50%league 50%
Angers1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Oct 25A · Strasbourg0–52
Lens1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W24 Aug 25A · LE Havre2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers13 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
76-90
Lens13 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
