Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Angers had 8 days of rest, Lorient 7 and had to travel 214 km.
Away travel214 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Angers38%
Draw28%
Lorient34%
Angers38%
Draw27%
Lorient34%
Angers37%
Draw28%
Lorient34%
Angers31%
Draw28%
Lorient41%
Angers39%
Draw27%
Lorient34%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 106
Team strength
Angers
Lorient
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
22
AttackIn forecast
28
12
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersLorient
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.38
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
50%
Scored inContext
63%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
8.50
ShotsContext
11.38
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
27%
On target shareContext
37%
6.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
67%
Box shareContext
70%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.13
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
3.25
BlocksContext
2.83
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
74%
Save rateContext
52%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
351
PassesContext
412
289
Accurate passesContext
349
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.66
10.88
FoulsContext
12.25
10.63
Fouls sufferedContext
15.75
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
2.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.50
ShotsContext
13.70
2.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
27%
On target shareContext
34%
6.13
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
65%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.57
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.60
Shots allowedContext
10.30
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.50
BlocksContext
2.75
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
74%
Save rateContext
57%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
342
PassesContext
401
281
Accurate passesContext
335
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.50
FoulsContext
12.40
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lorient
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel214 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Lorient |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 214 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
26F. Hanin
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
10H. Abdelli
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
35P. Peter
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
44D. Yongwa
3M. Talbi
5B. Meïté
43Arsène Kouassi
6L. Abergel
62A. Avom
11T. Le Bris
10P. Pagis
17J. Makengo
15A. Tosin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lorient
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lorient-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lorient · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| Rennes | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Angers wins2 draws1 Lorient wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 50%
- 5 Feb 2023Lorient0–0Angers
- 1 Jan 2023Angers1–2Lorient
- 16 Jan 2022Lorient0–0Angers
- 21 Nov 2021Angers1–0Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.88 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 13% | 63% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Angers | Lorient | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.88 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 13% | 63% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 7.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 3.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 5.76 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Angers | Lorient | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 8.22 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.90 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 106 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.81
Red cards0.21league 0.30
Cards 5+47%league 38%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.53
Home wins53%league 53%
Angers1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L16 Oct 22A · Toulouse2–32
Lorient5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Mar 24A · Rennes2–11
- L28 Oct 23A · Reims0–13
- L6 Nov 22H · Paris Saint Germain1–21
- L31 Aug 22A · Lens2–53
- W27 Feb 22A · Stade Brestois 291–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers8 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
61-75
2
76-90
Lorient8 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
8
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
6
61-75
2
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
61-75
4
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
