Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Angers. Angers had 15.7 days of rest, Lyon 14 and had to travel 461 km.
Away travel461 kmRest days15.7 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Angers27%
Draw27%
Lyon47%
Angers21%
Draw25%
Lyon54%
Angers26%
Draw27%
Lyon47%
Angers21%
Draw25%
Lyon54%
Angers27%
Draw27%
Lyon46%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 73
Team strength
Angers
Lyon
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
60
22
AttackIn forecast
55
12
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersLyon
0.89
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.52
1.37
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
63%
Scored inContext
85%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
9.07
ShotsContext
11.70
3.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.41
35%
On target shareContext
38%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
60%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.95
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.78
Shots allowedContext
11.22
5.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.81
2.85
BlocksContext
3.91
3.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
74%
Save rateContext
75%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
407
PassesContext
466
339
Accurate passesContext
400
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.90
10.85
FoulsContext
13.22
10.85
Fouls sufferedContext
13.04
1.41
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.15
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.50
ShotsContext
10.20
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
65%
Box shareContext
63%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.90
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.50
BlocksContext
3.11
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
73%
Save rateContext
77%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
424
PassesContext
472
360
Accurate passesContext
406
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.20
FoulsContext
11.90
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest15.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel461 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Mar | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 461 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
20Marius Louer
27L. Rao-Lisoa
14Y. Belkhdim
8B. van den Boomen
93H. Belkebla
36Lanroy Machine
7M. Sbaï
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
17Afonso Moreira
8C. Tolisso
9Endrick
10P. Šulc
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lyon+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-5
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.15
Lyon · Away
1.36points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-5
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Nice | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Monaco | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Lorient | L 0–2 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Metz | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 5–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HD 3–3 A |
| Marseille | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 32 of 78 · 1.23 per game | 44 of 78 · 1.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Angers wins0 draws6 Lyon wins
Goals per game0.86 – 2.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 19 Sep 2025Lyon1–0Angers
- 17 May 2025Lyon2–0Angers
- 7 Dec 2024Angers0–3Lyon
- 25 Feb 2023Angers1–3Lyon
- 3 Sep 2022Lyon5–0Angers
- 3 Apr 2022Lyon3–2Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.89 | 1.52 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.37 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 2.26 | 2.59 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 26% | 52% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 48% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 15% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Angers | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.20 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.54 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.81 | 4.76 | |
| Match total | 8.35 | 9.76 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 11/26 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 8/26 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 5/26 | 28% 7/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.22 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 4.63 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% 10/27 | 78% 21/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 7% 2/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Angers | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 8.38 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 5.20 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 3.70
Red cards0.40league 0.28
Cards 5+42%league 37%
Fouls23.8league 23.8
Penalties0.34league 0.37
Home wins41%league 48%
Angers3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Jan 26H · Marseille2–51
- D14 Aug 22A · Auxerre2–23
- D22 Sep 21H · Marseille0–01
Lyon9 with this referee
Record3-2-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds2
- L22 Feb 26A · Strasbourg1–33
- L14 Sep 25A · Rennes1–33
- W15 Dec 23A · Monaco1–02
- L14 May 23A · Clermont Foot1–23
- W28 Apr 23A · Strasbourg2–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers27 games · scored 24 · conceded 37
1
3
0-15
5
6
16-30
2
8
31-45
5
6
46-60
2
10
61-75
9
4
76-90
Lyon27 games · scored 41 · conceded 29
5
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
10
6
31-45
7
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
9
12
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
