Angers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 23). Marseille usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Angers had 13.2 days of rest, Marseille 13.3 and had to travel 656 km.
Away travel656 kmRest days13.2 · 13.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Angers21%
Draw24%
Marseille54%
Angers22%
Draw25%
Marseille53%
Angers21%
Draw25%
Marseille55%
Angers16%
Draw22%
Marseille62%
Angers22%
Draw25%
Marseille53%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 68
Team strength
Angers
Marseille
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
22
AttackIn forecast
48
12
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AngersMarseille
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.12
1.18
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
71%
Scored inContext
76%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
8.82
ShotsContext
13.59
3.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.47
37%
On target shareContext
40%
5.19
Shots in the boxContext
8.53
58%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.58
14.29
Shots allowedContext
9.71
5.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
3.06
BlocksContext
3.14
3.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
75%
Save rateContext
76%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
397
PassesContext
571
327
Accurate passesContext
512
82%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.24
FoulsContext
11.94
11.12
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.35
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.24
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
13.30
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
41%
On target shareContext
40%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
52%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.20
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.90
BlocksContext
3.75
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
76%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
433
PassesContext
537
357
Accurate passesContext
473
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.90
FoulsContext
12.20
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km460 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel656 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan | 13.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 656 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 460 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
5M. Courcoul
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
35P. Peter
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
32F. Medina
5L. Balerdi
62A. Murillo
33Emerson
23P. Højbjerg
26B. Nadir
22T. Weah
20H. Traorè
10M. Greenwood
9A. Gouiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Marseille-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
1.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.88
Marseille · Away
1.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | L 1–2 A | W 6–2 H |
| Nantes | W 4–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 A | W 5–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lille | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Monaco | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–5 A | W 2–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Metz | D 1–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Rennes | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 H | W 5–2 H |
| Points | 21 of 48 · 1.31 per game | 31 of 48 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Angers wins3 draws4 Marseille wins
Goals per game0.86 – 2.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 29 Oct 2025Marseille2–2Angers
- 9 Feb 2025Angers0–2Marseille
- 4 Oct 2024Marseille1–1Angers
- 14 May 2023Marseille3–1Angers
- 30 Sep 2022Angers0–3Marseille
- 4 Feb 2022Marseille5–2Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 2.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.18 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.24 | 3.12 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 59% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 41% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 24% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Angers | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 5.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.19 | 3.69 | |
| Match total | 8.94 | 8.88 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 9/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 4/16 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.41 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.24 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 2.65 | 3.88 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 35% 6/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Angers | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.20 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.40 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.64
Red cards0.43league 0.34
Cards 5+46%league 36%
Fouls24.0league 24.2
Penalties0.35league 0.45
Home wins41%league 51%
Angers2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Aug 22A · Auxerre2–23
- D22 Sep 21H · Marseille0–01
Marseille10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds3
- L18 Feb 24A · Stade Brestois 290–11
- L21 Oct 23A · Nice0–13
- D1 Sep 23A · Nantes1–12
- W11 Feb 23A · Clermont Foot2–03
- W2 Jan 23A · Montpellier2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Angers17 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
7
2
76-90
Marseille17 games · scored 36 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
6
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
8
1
61-75
11
6
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
