Angers vs Nantes – 12 Dec 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 16 Fri, Dec 12 · 19:45 Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers

Angers 11th · 19 pts · 15 played LWWLW

4–1Full time

Nantes 17th · 11 pts · 15 played LDDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Angers were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Angers had 5.2 days of rest, Nantes 6.2 and had to travel 81 km.

Away travel81 kmRest days5.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Angers45%

Draw27%

Nantes28%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.10

Angers45%

Draw27%

Nantes28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Angers44%

Draw27%

Nantes28%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.10

Angers38%

Draw28%

Nantes34%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.23

Angers46%

Draw27%

Nantes28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.16

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Angers)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 78

Team strength

Angers

Nantes

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

22 AttackIn forecast 24

12 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Angers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Angers

Nantes

0.87 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.87

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.83 xGVia Att/Def 0.77

1.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

67% Scored inContext 53%

33% Clean sheetsContext 13%

8.20 ShotsContext 9.33

3.46 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.85

37% On target shareContext 26%

5.07 Shots in the boxContext 5.40

59% Box shareContext 57%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.56

15.00 Shots allowedContext 15.80

5.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.93

3.27 BlocksContext 4.77

3.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

77% Save rateContext 69%

41% PossessionIn forecast 42%

391 PassesContext 347

322 Accurate passesContext 276

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.07 FoulsContext 10.93

10.73 Fouls sufferedContext 12.87

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 0.79

1.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.60 ShotsContext 9.30

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

37% On target shareContext 28%

4.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

56% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.67

14.80 Shots allowedContext 16.30

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.00 BlocksContext 4.44

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

71% Save rateContext 65%

45% PossessionIn forecast 43%

429 PassesContext 340

354 Accurate passesContext 271

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.70 FoulsContext 11.10

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Angers

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,476 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel81 km1,047 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Angers	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Dec	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	81 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,476 km	1,047 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	22.9	22.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Angers Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12H. Koffi(G)

3J. Ekomié 21J. Lefort 4O. Camara 2C. Arcus

10H. Abdelli 93H. Belkebla

7M. Sbaï 6L. Mouton 14Y. Belkhdim

11S. Chérif

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1A. Lopes(G)

98K. Amian 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 18F. Centonze

27D. Machado 80J. Mwanga 8J. Lepenant 90Y. Benhattab

10M. Abline 31M. Abdalla

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Angers Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Angers+0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Nantes-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Angers · Home 1.57points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-2
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 0.86

Nantes · Away 0.86points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-3
Scored: 0.71
Conceded: 1.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Angers	Nantes
Nice	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Lens	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 H
Toulouse	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 A
Auxerre	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 H
Lille	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 H
Lorient	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Monaco	D 1–1 H	L 3–5 H
Strasbourg	L 0–5 A	L 0–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–2 H	D 0–0 A
Lyon	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
Metz	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Rennes	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 H
Paris FC	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 A
Points	18 of 42 · 1.29 per game	10 of 42 · 0.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Angers wins3 draws2 Nantes wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.17 Over 2.517% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 33%

4 May 2025Nantes0–1Angers
22 Sep 2024Angers1–1Nantes
3 Jun 2023Nantes1–0Angers
7 Aug 2022Angers0–0Nantes
17 Apr 2022Nantes1–1Angers
19 Sep 2021Angers1–4Nantes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Angers	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.87	0.87
Conceded per game	1.13	1.60
Match goals	2.00	2.47	2.56
Over 1.5	60%	67%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	13%	20%
Both teams scored	33%	47%	52%
Clean sheets	33%	13%
Failed to score	33%	47%
Games	15	15

	Angers	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.30	1.90
Match goals	2.30	2.90	2.56
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Angers	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	3.21
Corners conceded	5.29	6.64
Match total	8.79	9.85	9.28
Over 8.5	50% 7/14	71% 10/14
Over 9.5	43% 6/14	64% 9/14
Over 10.5	21% 3/14	57% 8/14
Cards
Cards	1.47	1.73
Opponent cards	1.20	2.13
Match total	2.67	3.86	4.05
Over 3.5	40% 6/15	60% 9/15
Over 4.5	0% 0/15	33% 5/15

	Angers	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	2.89
Corners conceded	4.90	6.56
Match total	8.90	9.45	9.28
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.90
Opponent cards	1.30	2.30
Match total	2.70	4.20	4.05
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 78 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 3.69

Red cards0.24league 0.33

Cards 5+31%league 36%

Fouls24.6league 24.0

Penalties0.24league 0.47

Home wins50%league 51%

Angers6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

L17 May 25A · Lyon0–22
W19 Jan 25H · Auxerre2–02
L30 Oct 22A · Monaco0–23
L28 Aug 22A · Estac Troyes1–33
D24 Apr 22A · Clermont Foot2–26

Nantes7 with this referee

Record3-1-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 0

W30 Aug 25H · Auxerre1–01
L2 Mar 25A · Marseille0–22
W6 Oct 23A · Strasbourg2–11
D28 Dec 22A · Estac Troyes0–02
L12 Mar 22A · Estac Troyes0–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.