Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Antalyaspor. Antalyaspor had 7.3 days of rest, Fenerbahce 2.9 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days7.3 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Antalyaspor16%
Draw22%
Fenerbahce62%
Antalyaspor13%
Draw20%
Fenerbahce66%
Antalyaspor15%
Draw22%
Fenerbahce64%
Antalyaspor11%
Draw19%
Fenerbahce70%
Antalyaspor16%
Draw23%
Fenerbahce61%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 26
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Fenerbahce
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
11
AttackIn forecast
75
14
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporFenerbahce
0.96
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.26
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
65%
Scored inContext
91%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
8.26
ShotsContext
17.09
3.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.09
40%
On target shareContext
36%
5.36
Shots in the boxContext
10.13
62%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.78
Shots allowedContext
9.65
4.61
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.09
3.26
BlocksContext
3.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
65%
Save rateContext
79%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
328
PassesContext
469
258
Accurate passesContext
405
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.65
FoulsContext
11.91
14.45
Fouls sufferedContext
13.52
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.40
ShotsContext
13.40
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
37%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
59%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.71
12.10
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.00
BlocksContext
2.89
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
64%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
308
PassesContext
490
235
Accurate passesContext
421
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.00
FoulsContext
9.50
15.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km934 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel481 km5,226 km in 14d
Schedule load39%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 39 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.3Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 934 km | 5,226 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
30L. Giannetti
89V. Sarı
4H. Türkmen
23Jesper Ceesay
6S. Dikmen
70D. Sinik
26N. Storm
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
24J. Oosterwolde
6M. Guendouzi
14Y. Demir
17N. Kanté
22M. Mercan
5İ. Yüksek
21Marco Asensio
27Nélson Semedo
9M. Aktürkoğlu
26S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor+1.0 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Fenerbahce-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
1.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 2.27
Fenerbahce · Away
2.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| Samsunspor | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–4 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 H | W 3–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 H | D 1–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–3 A | W 4–0 A |
| Rizespor | L 2–5 H | W 5–2 A |
| Points | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game | 50 of 66 · 2.27 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Antalyaspor wins0 draws5 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game0.40 – 2.40
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets0% · 80%
- 28 Sep 2025Fenerbahce2–0Antalyaspor
- 2 Mar 2025Fenerbahce3–0Antalyaspor
- 29 Sep 2024Antalyaspor0–2Fenerbahce
- 3 Feb 2024Antalyaspor0–2Fenerbahce
- 17 Sep 2023Fenerbahce3–2Antalyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.96 | 2.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 3.17 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 57% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 65% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 35% | 9% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Antalyaspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.90 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.96 | 5.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 10.55 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 14/23 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 14/23 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 9/23 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.35 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.35 | 3.26 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.69 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 15/23 | 78% 18/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 11/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Antalyaspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 11.20 | 9.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.50 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.42league 4.43
Red cards0.12league 0.21
Cards 5+46%league 46%
Fouls23.4league 26.0
Penalties0.38league 0.26
Home wins42%league 38%
Antalyaspor4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W3 Nov 25A · Eyüpspor1–02
- W9 Aug 25H · Kasimpasa2–13
- D18 May 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–02
- W9 Nov 24H · BB Bodrumspor3–23
Fenerbahce2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Feb 26A · Kocaelispor2–03
- W2 Dec 24H · Gazişehir Gaziantep3–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor23 games · scored 22 · conceded 36
3
8
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
10
76-90
Fenerbahce23 games · scored 52 · conceded 21
6
5
0-15
8
6
16-30
13
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
12
3
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
