Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were clear favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 13). Galatasaray usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Antalyaspor had 5 days of rest, Galatasaray 8 and had to travel 481 km.
Away travel481 kmRest days5 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antalyaspor11%
Draw18%
Galatasaray71%
Antalyaspor11%
Draw19%
Galatasaray70%
Antalyaspor11%
Draw18%
Galatasaray71%
Antalyaspor8%
Draw15%
Galatasaray78%
Antalyaspor11%
Draw18%
Galatasaray70%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 12
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Galatasaray
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
11
AttackIn forecast
57
14
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporGalatasaray
0.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.13
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.73
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
67%
Scored inContext
87%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
7.93
ShotsContext
16.40
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.93
45%
On target shareContext
36%
5.64
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
66%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.08
14.73
Shots allowedContext
9.73
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.13
BlocksContext
2.62
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
66%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
339
PassesContext
481
270
Accurate passesContext
419
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.06
11.80
FoulsContext
11.87
14.27
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.99
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.39
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.50
ShotsContext
16.60
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
40%
On target shareContext
36%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
65%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.30
14.90
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.00
BlocksContext
2.88
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
64%
Save rateContext
68%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
334
PassesContext
463
269
Accurate passesContext
400
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.69
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.00
FoulsContext
11.30
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Galatasaray
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel481 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Dec | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 481 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
21A. Yiğiter(G)
4H. Türkmen
30L. Giannetti
89V. Sarı
3K. Paal
8R. Safuri
23Jesper Ceesay
7B. Balcı
26N. Storm
11S. Ballet
77Yohan Boli
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
19G. Güvenç(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
34L. Torreira
20İ. Gündoğan
53B. Yılmaz
11Y. Akgün
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Galatasaray+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
0.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.57
Galatasaray · Away
2.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 0.43
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Galatasaray |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 H | W 2–1 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Rizespor | L 2–5 H | W 3–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 12 of 42 · 0.86 per game | 36 of 42 · 2.57 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Antalyaspor wins0 draws4 Galatasaray wins
Goals per game0.25 – 2.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 14 Mar 2025Galatasaray4–0Antalyaspor
- 19 Oct 2024Antalyaspor0–3Galatasaray
- 26 Feb 2024Galatasaray2–1Antalyaspor
- 7 Oct 2023Antalyaspor0–2Galatasaray
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.93 | 2.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.87 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 13% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Antalyaspor | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.70 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 8.42 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 8/15 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 8/15 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 1.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.74 | 4.27 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 9/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Antalyaspor | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.47
Red cards0.08league 0.26
Cards 5+58%league 48%
Fouls25.3league 26.3
Penalties0.33league 0.27
Home wins50%league 35%
Antalyaspor3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L28 Sep 25A · Fenerbahce0–26
- L24 Aug 25A · Trabzonspor0–12
- L30 May 25H · Trabzonspor0–20
Galatasaray1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25H · Rizespor3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor15 games · scored 14 · conceded 25
2
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Galatasaray15 games · scored 32 · conceded 11
3
2
0-15
7
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
8
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
