Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Antalyaspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Antalyaspor. Antalyaspor had 7.1 days of rest, Kayserispor 6.1 and had to travel 467 km.
Away travel467 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antalyaspor41%
Draw27%
Kayserispor33%
Antalyaspor42%
Draw27%
Kayserispor31%
Antalyaspor42%
Draw27%
Kayserispor31%
Antalyaspor33%
Draw27%
Kayserispor40%
Antalyaspor41%
Draw27%
Kayserispor33%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 5
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Kayserispor
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
11
AttackIn forecast
16
14
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporKayserispor
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
0.61
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
75%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.80
ShotsContext
9.25
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
55%
On target shareContext
35%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
69%
Box shareContext
52%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.40
Shots allowedContext
13.25
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
3.40
BlocksContext
2.00
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
72%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
350
PassesContext
333
273
Accurate passesContext
258
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.40
FoulsContext
10.25
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.81
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
8.70
ShotsContext
8.60
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
44%
On target shareContext
41%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
62%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.20
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.78
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
71%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
372
PassesContext
339
300
Accurate passesContext
270
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.00
FoulsContext
10.60
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,375 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel467 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 467 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,375 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
14G. Dzhikiya
30L. Giannetti
7B. Balcı
20Hasan Yakub İlçin
6S. Dikmen
26N. Storm
8R. Safouri
10A. Ömür
22S. van de Streek
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
3A. Burak
4S. Denswil
28R. Civelek
24D. Toköz
7Miguel Cardoso
8L. Bénes
10João Mendes
30A. Opoku
9G. Onugkha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor-1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Kayserispor+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Kayserispor · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Antalyaspor wins2 draws1 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 12 May 2025Kayserispor3–1Antalyaspor
- 15 Dec 2024Antalyaspor2–0Kayserispor
- 29 Jan 2024Kayserispor1–1Antalyaspor
- 2 Sep 2023Antalyaspor1–1Kayserispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 25% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 25% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
| Antalyaspor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 25% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 25% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.25 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.00 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Antalyaspor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 10.20 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.70 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.43
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+20%league 45%
Fouls26.2league 26.2
Penalties0.20league 0.27
Home wins60%league 41%
AntalyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
Kayserispor2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Aug 25A · Istanbul Basaksehir1–11
- D25 May 25H · BB Bodrumspor1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor5 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Kayserispor4 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
