Antalyaspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Antalyaspor40.6%fair odds 2.46
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Kayserispor32.6%fair odds 3.07
Expected goals1.45 – 1.28total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kayserispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Antalyaspor ↓ · Kayserispor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Antalyaspor goals, columns Kayserispor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.85
- 1–08.8%11.33
- 2–18.8%11.37
- 1–27.7%12.94
- 0–17.7%13.03
- 0–07.2%13.98
- 2–06.9%14.53
- 2–25.6%17.80
- 0–25.3%18.82
- 3–14.3%23.46
Winning margin
7.6%
Antalyaspor by 3+
fair 13.22
12.3%
Antalyaspor by 2
fair 8.15
20.8%
Antalyaspor by 1
fair 4.81
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
18.2%
Kayserispor by 1
fair 5.49
9.5%
Kayserispor by 2
fair 10.56
4.9%
Kayserispor by 3+
fair 20.50
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Antalyaspor goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Kayserispor goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor win | 40.6% | 40.6% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.7% | +0.1 pp |
| Kayserispor win | 32.6% | 32.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.4% | 52.0% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.9% | 56.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Antalyaspor | 1.45 | 1.47 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Kayserispor | 1.28 | 1.29 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Antalyaspor win40.6%2.46
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Kayserispor win32.6%3.07
- Double chance Antalyaspor or draw67.4%1.48
- Double chance Antalyaspor or Kayserispor73.2%1.37
- Double chance Kayserispor or draw59.4%1.68
- Draw no bet Antalyaspor55.5%1.80
- Draw no bet Kayserispor44.5%2.25
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.3%1.31
- Over 2.551.4%1.95
- Over 3.529.3%3.41
- Over 4.514.2%7.05
- Under 1.523.7%4.23
- Under 2.548.6%2.06
- Under 3.570.7%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes55.9%1.79
- No44.1%2.27
- Yes and over 2.543.2%2.32
- Antalyaspor win and yes19.9%5.02
- Draw and yes19.7%5.09
- Kayserispor win and yes16.3%6.12
Team goals
- Antalyaspor over 0.576.6%1.30
- Antalyaspor over 1.542.7%2.34
- Antalyaspor over 2.518.0%5.56
- Kayserispor over 0.572.1%1.39
- Kayserispor over 1.536.5%2.74
- Kayserispor over 2.513.8%7.26
- Antalyaspor clean sheet27.9%3.59
- Kayserispor clean sheet23.4%4.28
- Antalyaspor win to nil20.7%4.83
- Kayserispor win to nil16.2%6.17
Handicap
- Antalyaspor −1.519.8%5.04
- Antalyaspor −2.57.6%13.22
- Kayserispor +1.580.2%1.25
- Kayserispor +2.592.4%1.08
- Kayserispor −1.514.3%6.97
- Antalyaspor +1.585.7%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored44
Favourite won43.2%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right59.1%
BTTS called right40.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.2% | 14.3% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 44.8% | 21.1% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.7% | 62.5% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 65.8% | 87.5% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 78.2% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 20 of 44 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5981 | 0.5511 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.6% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 45.0% | 55.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 20 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 44 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.