Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Antalyaspor. Antalyaspor had 6.2 days of rest, Samsunspor 6 and had to travel 688 km.
Away travel688 kmRest days6.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antalyaspor31%
Draw28%
Samsunspor41%
Antalyaspor30%
Draw27%
Samsunspor43%
Antalyaspor31%
Draw28%
Samsunspor41%
Antalyaspor25%
Draw27%
Samsunspor49%
Antalyaspor31%
Draw28%
Samsunspor41%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAdnan Deniz Kayatepe
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 13
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Samsunspor
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
11
AttackIn forecast
15
14
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporSamsunspor
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.14
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
67%
Scored inContext
71%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
7.90
ShotsContext
12.48
3.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.05
40%
On target shareContext
29%
5.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.48
62%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.16
OffsidesContext
2.06
13.81
Shots allowedContext
11.43
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.48
3.33
BlocksContext
3.18
3.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
65%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
334
PassesContext
405
264
Accurate passesContext
334
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.52
FoulsContext
14.43
14.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.24
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.64
xGVia Att/Def
0.68
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
60%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
6.90
ShotsContext
10.90
2.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
29%
On target shareContext
21%
4.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
61%
Box shareContext
53%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.10
11.80
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.40
BlocksContext
3.50
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
61%
Save rateContext
58%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
326
PassesContext
442
253
Accurate passesContext
371
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.50
FoulsContext
13.90
16.78
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Samsunspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel688 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 688 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 1,238 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
30L. Giannetti
89V. Sarı
4H. Türkmen
23Jesper Ceesay
70D. Sinik
8R. Safouri
6S. Dikmen
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
71İ. Eğribayat(G)
28S. Gönül
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
2J. Mendes
10J. Ntcham
5C. Yüksel
19P. Ndiaye
20Y. Kayan
21C. Holse
9Marius
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Samsunspor-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
0.80points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-6
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 2.40
Samsunspor · Away
1.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–4 H | L 2–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Rizespor | L 2–5 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 60 · 0.85 per game | 30 of 60 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Antalyaspor wins0 draws2 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 13 Sep 2025Samsunspor1–2Antalyaspor
- 5 Apr 2025Antalyaspor2–1Samsunspor
- 4 Nov 2024Samsunspor2–0Antalyaspor
- 12 Feb 2024Samsunspor2–0Antalyaspor
- 23 Sep 2023Antalyaspor2–0Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.14 | |
| Match goals | 2.52 | 2.29 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 38% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 29% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Antalyaspor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.52 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.42 | 9.25 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 12/21 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 8/21 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.05 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 4.66 | 3.81 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 13/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 10/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Antalyaspor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 7.40 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.10 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adnan Deniz Kayatepe Türkiye · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.46league 4.41
Red cards0.08league 0.23
Cards 5+46%league 46%
Fouls26.5league 25.9
Penalties0.46league 0.26
Home wins38%league 36%
Antalyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Nov 25H · Goztepe1–20
Samsunspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D31 Aug 25A · Trabzonspor1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor21 games · scored 19 · conceded 34
2
8
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Samsunspor21 games · scored 24 · conceded 24
5
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
8
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
