Antalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Trabzonspor were slight favourites.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 13). Trabzonspor usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Antalyaspor had 5.1 days of rest, Trabzonspor 7 and had to travel 903 km.
Away travel903 kmRest days5.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Antalyaspor23%
Draw24%
Trabzonspor53%
Antalyaspor23%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor52%
Antalyaspor22%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor53%
Antalyaspor17%
Draw22%
Trabzonspor61%
Antalyaspor23%
Draw25%
Trabzonspor52%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Antalya)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 14
Team strength
Antalyaspor
Trabzonspor
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
11
AttackIn forecast
54
14
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntalyasporTrabzonspor
0.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.95
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
68%
Scored inContext
89%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
8.11
ShotsContext
15.42
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.53
41%
On target shareContext
36%
5.39
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
62%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.84
Shots allowedContext
13.79
4.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.11
BlocksContext
3.89
3.05
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.73
64%
Save rateContext
77%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
336
PassesContext
424
266
Accurate passesContext
364
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.98
11.16
FoulsContext
12.00
14.61
Fouls sufferedContext
13.63
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.16
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
60%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.40
ShotsContext
16.60
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.10
28%
On target shareContext
37%
4.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
61%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.83
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.80
BlocksContext
3.40
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
61%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
327
PassesContext
452
255
Accurate passesContext
395
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.40
FoulsContext
12.40
15.56
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antalyaspor
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel903 km2,092 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antalyaspor |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 903 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 2,092 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
4H. Türkmen
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
6S. Dikmen
2S. Karakoc
8R. Safouri
88D. Šarić
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
14M. Løvik
44A. Batagov
27Chibuike Nwaiwu
20Wagner Pina
10E. Muçi
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
42Christ Inao Oulaï
22O. Zubkov
99F. da Silva
30E. Onuachu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antalyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antalyaspor+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antalyaspor · Home
0.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-6
- Scored
- 1.22
- Conceded
- 2.56
Trabzonspor · Away
2.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Antalyaspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 3–4 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–4 H | D 0–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–3 H | D 3–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–4 H | W 4–3 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Rizespor | L 2–5 H | W 2–1 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Samsunspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 1–2 H | W 4–3 A |
| Points | 19 of 54 · 1.06 per game | 38 of 54 · 2.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Antalyaspor wins1 draws4 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game0.20 – 2.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets0% · 80%
- 24 Aug 2025Trabzonspor1–0Antalyaspor
- 30 May 2025Antalyaspor0–2Trabzonspor
- 12 Jan 2025Trabzonspor5–0Antalyaspor
- 14 Jan 2024Antalyaspor1–1Trabzonspor
- 11 Aug 2023Trabzonspor1–0Antalyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antalyaspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.95 | 1.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.11 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 53% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 11% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Antalyaspor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antalyaspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.95 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.21 | 4.47 | |
| Match total | 9.16 | 9.06 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 10/19 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 10/19 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 6/19 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.37 | 2.53 | |
| Match total | 4.69 | 4.32 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 58% 11/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 9/19 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Antalyaspor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.50 | 4.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.29league 4.39
Red cards0.21league 0.24
Cards 5+36%league 45%
Fouls25.3league 25.7
Penalties0.36league 0.25
Home wins43%league 36%
Antalyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Dec 25A · Alanyaspor0–01
TrabzonsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antalyaspor19 games · scored 18 · conceded 32
2
7
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Trabzonspor19 games · scored 37 · conceded 22
4
1
0-15
4
7
16-30
7
5
31-45
9
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
9
5
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 16
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
