Antwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Antwerp
7th · 27 pts · 21 played
WWDWL
First leg1–1
0–2Full time
Charleroi
8th · 27 pts · 21 played
LDDWW
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 25). Antwerp had 6.9 days of rest, Charleroi 6.8 and had to travel 90 km.
Away travel90 kmRest days6.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antwerp53%
Draw25%
Charleroi22%
Antwerp54%
Draw25%
Charleroi22%
Antwerp53%
Draw25%
Charleroi22%
Antwerp46%
Draw27%
Charleroi27%
Antwerp54%
Draw25%
Charleroi22%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 27
Team strength
AntwerpCharleroi
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
24
AttackIn forecast
43
19
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AntwerpCharleroi
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.24
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
67%
Scored inContext
76%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.95
ShotsContext
11.00
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
37%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
60%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.72
OffsidesContext
2.61
14.10
Shots allowedContext
11.57
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.65
4.76
BlocksContext
3.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
76%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
360
PassesContext
360
285
Accurate passesContext
287
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.24
FoulsContext
11.43
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.05
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.70
ShotsContext
12.20
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
37%
On target shareContext
34%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
63%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
5.30
BlocksContext
3.20
4.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
84%
Save rateContext
79%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
335
PassesContext
351
259
Accurate passesContext
281
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.93
12.10
FoulsContext
11.10
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Antwerp
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km93 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel90 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Antwerp |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 90 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 93 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
21A. Verstraeten
20R. Van Helden
33Z. Van Den Bosch
5D. Foulon
78Xander Dierickx
8D. Praet
24T. Somers
9M. Al Sahafi
18V. Janssen
7G. Kerk
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Antwerp · Home
1.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.18
Charleroi · Away
1.00points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-6
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Antwerp | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Anderlecht | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Gent | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Genk | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| OH Leuven | W 3–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 26 of 60 · 1.30 per game | 26 of 60 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Antwerp wins1 draws1 Charleroi wins
Goals per game2.33 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 17 Aug 2025Charleroi1–1Antwerp
- 21 Jan 2024Antwerp4–1Charleroi
- 21 Oct 2023Charleroi3–2Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Antwerp | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.24 | |
| Match goals | 2.19 | 2.43 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 43% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 57% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 24% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Antwerp | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Antwerp | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.95 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.05 | 4.95 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.66 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 7/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.05 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 4.24 | 3.62 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 11/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 10/21 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Antwerp | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 11.50 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.30 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.07league 3.85
Red cards0.11league 0.19
Cards 5+22%league 41%
Fouls19.9league 22.9
Penalties0.26league 0.28
Home wins44%league 42%
Antwerp4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L30 Aug 25A · KVC Westerlo0–23
- D30 Sep 23A · KV Mechelen0–01
- D3 Sep 23A · Union St. Gilloise2–22
- W11 Aug 23H · Kortrijk6–00
Charleroi1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Mar 24A · Gent0–52
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Antwerp21 games · scored 24 · conceded 22
3
3
0-15
6
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Charleroi21 games · scored 25 · conceded 26
6
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
