Antwerp vs Genk – 7 Dec 2025

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Dec 7 · 17:30 Bosuilstadion, Deurne

Antwerp 13th · 17 pts · 16 played LLWLW

First leg1–1 3–0Full time

Genk 7th · 23 pts · 16 played DWDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Antwerp had 7.2 days of rest, Genk 7.1 and had to travel 78 km.

Away travel78 kmRest days7.2 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Antwerp40%

Draw27%

Genk34%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.30

Antwerp40%

Draw27%

Genk33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Antwerp40%

Draw27%

Genk34%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.30

Antwerp32%

Draw27%

Genk41%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.46

Antwerp40%

Draw27%

Genk33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Deurne)

No weather data yet

RefereeJasper Vergoote

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.51
Matches 37

Team strength

Antwerp

Genk

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

26 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

24 AttackIn forecast 46

19 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Antwerp

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Antwerp

Genk

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

63% Scored inContext 88%

13% Clean sheetsContext 6%

10.75 ShotsContext 15.94

4.06 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.31

38% On target shareContext 33%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

59% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.93 OffsidesContext 2.20

14.31 Shots allowedContext 11.44

4.69 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

4.56 BlocksContext 3.43

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

73% Save rateContext 71%

48% PossessionIn forecast 64%

371 PassesContext 558

297 Accurate passesContext 488

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.31 FoulsContext 10.06

13.25 Fouls sufferedContext 13.69

2.31 Yellow cardsContext 1.38

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

50% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.70 ShotsContext 14.00

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

36% On target shareContext 37%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

61% Box shareContext 54%

6% ConversionContext 11%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.38

13.80 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.10 BlocksContext 3.89

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

72% Save rateContext 73%

49% PossessionIn forecast 58%

383 PassesContext 537

304 Accurate passesContext 462

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.70 FoulsContext 10.10

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Antwerp

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km173 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genk

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel78 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Antwerp	Genk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Nov	7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	78 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	173 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Antwerp Confirmed XI

3-4-3

41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)

26R. Bozhinov 25B. Kouyaté 33Z. Van Den Bosch

30C. Scott 78Xander Dierickx 16M. Benítez 24T. Somers

9M. Al Sahafi 18V. Janssen 7G. Kerk

Genk Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26T. Lawal(G)

19Y. Medina 6M. Smets 3Mujaid Sadick 77Z. El Ouahdi

8B. Heynen 24N. Sattlberger

7J. Steuckers 38D. Heymans 20K. Karetsas

9H. Oh

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Antwerp Absences are shown before kick-off

Genk Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Antwerp+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Genk+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Antwerp · Home 1.38points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-3
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.25

Genk · Away 1.50points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-2
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Antwerp	Genk
Club Brugge KV	W 1–0 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Dender	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 H
RAAL La Louvière	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 H
St. Truiden	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Standard Liege	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
Cercle Brugge	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Zulte Waregem	L 0–2 A	W 3–2 H
Anderlecht	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 A
Gent	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
KVC Westerlo	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
KV Mechelen	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 H
Charleroi	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
OH Leuven	W 3–1 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Union St. Gilloise	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Points	16 of 45 · 1.07 per game	22 of 45 · 1.47 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Antwerp wins1 draws1 Genk wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

3 Aug 2025Genk1–1Antwerp
26 Dec 2023Genk3–0Antwerp
4 Nov 2023Antwerp3–2Genk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Antwerp	Genk	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	1.31
Conceded per game	1.13	1.25
Match goals	2.06	2.56	2.73
Over 1.5	69%	81%
Over 2.5	31%	56%	51%
Over 3.5	13%	13%
Both teams scored	56%	81%	56%
Clean sheets	13%	6%
Failed to score	38%	13%
Games	16	16

	Antwerp	Genk	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.50
Conceded per game	1.10	1.10
Match goals	1.80	2.60	2.73
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Antwerp	Genk	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.50
Corners conceded	4.88	3.56
Match total	8.88	9.06	9.61
Over 8.5	50% 8/16	50% 8/16
Over 9.5	25% 4/16	38% 6/16
Over 10.5	19% 3/16	25% 4/16
Cards
Cards	2.44	1.44
Opponent cards	2.38	2.94
Match total	4.82	4.38	4.04
Over 3.5	69% 11/16	69% 11/16
Over 4.5	63% 10/16	50% 8/16

	Antwerp	Genk	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.30
Corners conceded	4.40	3.80
Match total	8.80	8.10	9.61
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.30
Opponent cards	2.20	2.80
Match total	4.60	4.10	4.04
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jasper Vergoote 37 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.83

Red cards0.30league 0.19

Cards 5+38%league 43%

Fouls23.6league 22.9

Penalties0.51league 0.30

Home wins54%league 43%

Antwerp3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

D25 Feb 24A · Gent2–22
W4 Feb 24H · Club Brugge KV2–12
L6 Aug 23A · Anderlecht0–11

Genk4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1

L27 Jul 25A · Club Brugge KV1–22
L3 Mar 24H · Club Brugge KV0–32
D20 Jan 24H · Cercle Brugge1–12
D8 Oct 23A · Gent1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.