Antwerp vs Standard Liege – 15 Mar 2026

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Mar 15 · 15:00 Bosuilstadion, Deurne

Antwerp 10th · 34 pts · 28 played LLLWD

First leg0–1 1–1Full time

Standard Liege 9th · 38 pts · 28 played LDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Antwerp were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Standard Liege. Antwerp had 8.8 days of rest, Standard Liege 6.9 and had to travel 101 km.

Away travel101 kmRest days8.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Antwerp41%

Draw29%

Standard Liege30%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.10

Antwerp47%

Draw26%

Standard Liege27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Antwerp41%

Draw29%

Standard Liege30%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.10

Antwerp34%

Draw29%

Standard Liege37%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.23

Antwerp41%

Draw28%

Standard Liege31%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.14

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Deurne)

No weather data yet

RefereeNathan Verboomen

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.13
Matches 40

Team strength

Antwerp

Standard Liege

35 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

26 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

24 AttackIn forecast 29

19 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Antwerp

Attack—

Defense risk—

Standard Liege

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Antwerp

Standard Liege

1.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.93

1.07 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.21

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

61% Scored inContext 61%

25% Clean sheetsContext 32%

10.50 ShotsContext 9.43

4.26 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.19

39% On target shareContext 33%

6.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.48

57% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.79 OffsidesContext 2.60

13.50 Shots allowedContext 14.32

4.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

4.29 BlocksContext 4.04

4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

77% Save rateContext 76%

48% PossessionIn forecast 44%

359 PassesContext 358

281 Accurate passesContext 277

78% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.71 FoulsContext 10.61

11.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

1.89 Yellow cardsContext 1.93

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 0.95

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

50% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.00 ShotsContext 8.80

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.78

42% On target shareContext 28%

5.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

53% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.67

12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.70

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.50 BlocksContext 3.90

4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

78% Save rateContext 77%

49% PossessionIn forecast 42%

353 PassesContext 347

266 Accurate passesContext 261

75% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.80 FoulsContext 9.50

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Antwerp

Rest8.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km168 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Standard Liege

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel101 km306 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Antwerp	Standard Liege
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Mar	6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	101 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	168 km	306 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Antwerp Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)

23G. Bijl 4Yuto Tsunashima 33Z. Van Den Bosch

5D. Foulon 30C. Scott 8D. Praet 17S. Renders

7G. Kerk 14A. Valencia

18V. Janssen

Standard Liege Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

21L. Pirard(G)

24J. Homawoo 4D. Bates 25I. Hautekiet

3Gustav Mortensen 23M. Ilaimaharitra 20I. Karamoko 18H. Lawrence

17R. Saïd 94C. Nielsen

10D. Eckert Ayensa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Antwerp Absences are shown before kick-off

Standard Liege Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Antwerp+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Standard Liege+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Antwerp · Home 1.50points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-3-5
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.21

Standard Liege · Away 1.50points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 7-0-7
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 1.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Antwerp	Standard Liege
RAAL La Louvière	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
St. Truiden	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Union St. Gilloise	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 HL 0–3 A
KVC Westerlo	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A	W 2–0 A
KV Mechelen	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Cercle Brugge	W 4–0 AD 1–1 H	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H
Charleroi	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 AW 3–1 H
Dender	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Zulte Waregem	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Anderlecht	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	W 2–0 HL 0–1 A
Gent	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H	L 0–4 HL 0–4 A
Genk	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	W 3–0 AW 2–1 H
Club Brugge KV	W 1–0 AL 0–1 H	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H
OH Leuven	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A
Points	34 of 81 · 1.26 per game	35 of 81 · 1.30 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Antwerp wins0 draws1 Standard Liege wins

Goals per game2.33 – 0.33 Over 2.533% Both scored0% Clean sheets67% · 33%

20 Oct 2025Standard Liege1–0Antwerp
31 Jan 2024Standard Liege0–1Antwerp
11 Nov 2023Antwerp6–0Standard Liege

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Antwerp	Standard Liege	Forecast
Scored per game	1.07	0.93
Conceded per game	1.07	1.21
Match goals	2.14	2.14	2.43
Over 1.5	71%	68%
Over 2.5	36%	39%	44%
Over 3.5	14%	11%
Both teams scored	43%	32%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	32%
Failed to score	39%	39%
Games	28	28

	Antwerp	Standard Liege	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	2.20	2.30	2.43
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	44%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Antwerp	Standard Liege	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	4.19
Corners conceded	5.00	5.26
Match total	8.89	9.45	9.92
Over 8.5	54% 15/28	48% 13/27
Over 9.5	36% 10/28	37% 10/27
Over 10.5	21% 6/28	30% 8/27
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.14
Opponent cards	2.07	1.82
Match total	4.07	3.96	4.03
Over 3.5	50% 14/28	61% 17/28
Over 4.5	39% 11/28	43% 12/28

	Antwerp	Standard Liege	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	4.89
Corners conceded	4.70	5.00
Match total	8.80	9.89	9.92
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	3.30	3.60	4.03
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nathan Verboomen 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.73league 3.82

Red cards0.23league 0.19

Cards 5+53%league 39%

Fouls22.4league 22.7

Penalties0.13league 0.31

Home wins48%league 41%

Antwerp3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L2 Nov 25A · St. Truiden0–13
D4 Oct 25H · Cercle Brugge1–11
W9 Dec 23A · Cercle Brugge3–11

Standard Liege4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.1.8 · 0.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

L25 Oct 25A · Gent0–42
W10 Aug 25H · Genk2–13
W16 Mar 24H · AS Eupen4–00
D26 Aug 23A · Kortrijk1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.