Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 17:45 Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan

Ararat-Armenia

1–4Full time

Sparta Praha

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sparta Praha were slight favourites.

Sparta Praha were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 7). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Ararat-Armenia. Ararat-Armenia had 20 days of rest, Sparta Praha 35.9 and had to travel 2,582 km.

Away travel2,582 kmRest days20 · 35.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Ararat-Armenia21%

Draw22%

Sparta Praha56%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.88

Ararat-Armenia20%

Draw23%

Sparta Praha57%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.83

Ararat-Armenia21%

Draw22%

Sparta Praha57%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.88

Ararat-Armenia16%

Draw20%

Sparta Praha64%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.11

Ararat-Armenia22%

Draw22%

Sparta Praha56%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.90

Over 2.5 57% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Yerevan)

No weather data yet

Referee · SwedenMohammed Al-Hakim

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 24

Team strength

Ararat-Armenia

Sparta Praha

7 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

7 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

8 AttackIn forecast 33

8 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ararat-Armenia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sparta Praha

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ararat-Armenia

Sparta Praha

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

— xGVia Att/Def 1.13

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

— Goals minus xGContext +0.17

90% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

— ShotsContext 10.70

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

50% On target shareContext 33%

— Shots in the boxContext 7.56

— Box shareContext 67%

33% ConversionContext 12%

— OffsidesContext 2.22

— Shots allowedContext 10.40

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

4.00 BlocksContext 3.38

— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71

— Save rateContext 79%

47% PossessionIn forecast 55%

— PassesContext 462

— Accurate passesContext 387

— Pass accuracyContext 84%

— Team ratingContext 6.78

8.67 FoulsContext 11.60

14.67 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ararat-Armenia

Rest20 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sparta Praha

Rest35.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,582 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ararat-Armenia	Sparta Praha
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug	35.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,582 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	29.1	29

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ararat-Armenia Confirmed XI

4-3-3

98João Bravim(G)

16E. Grigoryan 47A. Malis 43Bruno Wilson 3J. Julio

70Benny 19K. Muradyan 2Hugo Oliveira

11Z. Banjaqui 91Sandro Lima 77A. Serobyan

Sparta Praha Confirmed XI

4-3-3

44J. Surovčík(G)

11M. Ryneš 6T. Guddal 22L. Mbe Soh 2M. Suchomel

38Hugo Sochurek 28R. Macek 10A. Karabec

7J. Alcócer 14J. Braut Brunes 17J. Mercado

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ararat-Armenia Absences are shown before kick-off

Sparta Praha Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ararat-Armenia+0.6 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Sparta Praha-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Ararat-Armenia · Home No home games yet this season.

Sparta Praha · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Ararat-Armenia wins0 draws2 Sparta Praha wins

Goals per game1.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

14 Aug 2025Ararat-Armenia1–2Sparta Praha
7 Aug 2025Sparta Praha4–1Ararat-Armenia

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ararat-Armenia	Sparta Praha	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.96
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Ararat-Armenia	Sparta Praha	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.00
Conceded per game	1.13	2.00
Match goals	2.50	3.00	2.96
Over 1.5	88%	100%
Over 2.5	38%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	13%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	38%	0%
Failed to score	13%	50%
Games	8	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ararat-Armenia	Sparta Praha
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Ararat-Armenia	Sparta Praha
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.00
Corners conceded	7.25	4.78
Match total	11.75	9.78
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	75% 3/4	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.10
Opponent cards	3.00	1.80
Match total	4.80	3.90
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mohammed Al-Hakim Sweden · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33

Red cards0.13

Cards 5+25%

Fouls22.6

Penalties0.17

Home wins54%

Ararat-Armenia

No previous matches with this referee.

Sparta Praha

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.