Ararat-Armenia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Ararat-Armenia20.9%fair odds 4.78
Draw23.5%fair odds 4.25
Sparta Praha55.6%fair odds 1.80
Expected goals1.08 – 1.88total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sparta Praha
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Ararat-Armenia ↓ · Sparta Praha → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Ararat-Armenia goals, columns Sparta Praha goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.03
- 1–29.9%10.11
- 0–19.2%10.86
- 0–29.2%10.89
- 1–36.2%16.13
- 0–35.8%17.37
- 0–05.8%17.38
- 2–15.7%17.65
- 2–25.3%18.77
- 1–05.0%19.85
Winning margin
2.3%
Ararat-Armenia by 3+
fair 43.66
5.6%
Ararat-Armenia by 2
fair 17.73
13.0%
Ararat-Armenia by 1
fair 7.71
23.5%
Draw
fair 4.25
23.1%
Sparta Praha by 1
fair 4.34
17.2%
Sparta Praha by 2
fair 5.82
15.3%
Sparta Praha by 3+
fair 6.53
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Ararat-Armenia goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Sparta Praha goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia win | 20.9% | 21.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Sparta Praha win | 55.6% | 55.7% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 57.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 57.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Ararat-Armenia | 1.08 | 1.09 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Sparta Praha | 1.88 | 1.90 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Ararat-Armenia win20.9%4.78
- Draw23.5%4.25
- Sparta Praha win55.6%1.80
- Double chance Ararat-Armenia or draw44.4%2.25
- Double chance Ararat-Armenia or Sparta Praha76.5%1.31
- Double chance Sparta Praha or draw79.1%1.26
- Draw no bet Ararat-Armenia27.3%3.66
- Draw no bet Sparta Praha72.7%1.38
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.580.0%1.25
- Over 2.556.7%1.76
- Over 3.534.3%2.91
- Over 4.517.8%5.63
- Under 1.520.0%5.00
- Under 2.543.3%2.31
- Under 3.565.7%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.30
- Yes and over 2.545.4%2.20
- Ararat-Armenia win and yes11.4%8.77
- Draw and yes17.8%5.63
- Sparta Praha win and yes27.3%3.67
Team goals
- Ararat-Armenia over 0.565.9%1.52
- Ararat-Armenia over 1.529.3%3.42
- Ararat-Armenia over 2.59.5%10.52
- Sparta Praha over 0.584.7%1.18
- Sparta Praha over 1.556.1%1.78
- Sparta Praha over 2.529.1%3.44
- Ararat-Armenia clean sheet15.3%6.56
- Sparta Praha clean sheet34.1%2.94
- Ararat-Armenia win to nil9.5%10.52
- Sparta Praha win to nil28.3%3.53
Handicap
- Ararat-Armenia −1.57.9%12.61
- Ararat-Armenia −2.52.3%43.66
- Sparta Praha +1.592.1%1.09
- Sparta Praha +2.597.7%1.02
- Sparta Praha −1.532.5%3.08
- Ararat-Armenia +1.567.5%1.48
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.