Arouca vs Moreirense – 16 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 16 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca

Arouca 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

4–0Full time

Moreirense 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arouca were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Arouca. Arouca had 8 days of rest, Moreirense 6.9 and had to travel 51 km.

Away travel51 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Arouca50%

Draw25%

Moreirense25%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.01

Arouca48%

Draw25%

Moreirense27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Arouca50%

Draw25%

Moreirense25%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.01

Arouca43%

Draw27%

Moreirense31%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.13

Arouca50%

Draw25%

Moreirense25%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.02

Over 2.5 47% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Arouca)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndré Narciso

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 45

Team strength

Arouca

Moreirense

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 25

28 AttackIn forecast 17

37 DefenceIn forecast 27

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Moreirense

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arouca

Moreirense

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.56

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

90% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.30 ShotsContext 7.90

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

32% On target shareContext 35%

6.70 Shots in the boxContext 4.10

59% Box shareContext 49%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.17

12.60 Shots allowedContext 12.20

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.90 BlocksContext 3.60

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

63% Save rateContext 63%

49% PossessionIn forecast 48%

413 PassesContext 418

344 Accurate passesContext 344

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.30 FoulsContext 12.60

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arouca W

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km115 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 3 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W8 AugA · Guimaraes1–01.2 xPts

Moreirense D

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel51 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 47 · 1 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected

D9 AugH · SC Braga2–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arouca	Moreirense
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Aug	6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	51 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	115 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

18O. Lebedenko 3José Fontán 15Javi Sánchez 28Tiago Esgaio

8T. Fukui 6E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Moreirense Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 2Leandro Santos

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

11Landerson 21Rodri Alonso 89A. Vieira

9A. Duville-Parsemain

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Moreirense Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arouca+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Moreirense+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arouca · Home No home games yet this season.

Moreirense · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Arouca wins0 draws4 Moreirense wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.17 Over 2.517% Both scored17% Clean sheets33% · 50%

21 Mar 2026Moreirense0–1Arouca
2 Nov 2025Arouca0–2Moreirense
24 Jan 2025Arouca1–0Moreirense
18 Aug 2024Moreirense3–1Arouca
17 Mar 2024Moreirense1–0Arouca
27 Oct 2023Arouca0–1Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arouca	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	1.00	4.00	2.57
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	50%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Arouca	Moreirense	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.60
Match goals	2.70	2.40	2.57
Over 1.5	60%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arouca	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	4.00
Corners conceded	5.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	6.00	9.31
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	5.00	4.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	6.00	4.77
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Arouca	Moreirense	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	3.67
Corners conceded	5.80	4.44
Match total	9.50	8.11	9.31
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	3.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.40
Match total	5.50	4.60	4.77
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · André Narciso 45 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.04league 4.64

Red cards0.22league 0.29

Cards 5+60%league 50%

Fouls28.6league 25.3

Penalties0.29league 0.36

Home wins51%league 36%

Arouca7 with this referee

Record3-2-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 3.4 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D23 Feb 25H · Farense2–23
W15 Dec 24H · Santa Clara1–02
L29 Sep 24A · FC Porto0–43
D10 Dec 23H · Rio Ave2–21
L17 Sep 23H · Casa Pia0–12

Moreirense3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

W26 Oct 24A · Boavista2–03
D30 Aug 24H · Benfica1–13
W17 Dec 23H · Portimonense5–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.