Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arouca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Arouca had 6 days of rest, Rio Ave 6.2 and had to travel 63 km.
Away travel63 kmRest days6 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Arouca46%
Draw27%
Rio Ave27%
Arouca47%
Draw26%
Rio Ave27%
Arouca46%
Draw27%
Rio Ave27%
Arouca39%
Draw28%
Rio Ave33%
Arouca47%
Draw26%
Rio Ave27%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho
- Cards per match 6.0
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Arouca
Rio Ave
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
28
AttackIn forecast
18
37
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaRio Ave
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
3.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.80
Goals minus xGContext
—
50%
Scored inContext
—
0%
Clean sheetsContext
—
7.50
ShotsContext
—
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
33%
On target shareContext
—
4.50
Shots in the boxContext
—
53%
Box shareContext
—
20%
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
17.00
Shots allowedContext
—
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
4.00
BlocksContext
—
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
42%
Save rateContext
—
48%
PossessionIn forecast
—
417
PassesContext
—
354
Accurate passesContext
—
85%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.46
Team ratingContext
—
10.00
FoulsContext
—
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
—
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.50
Red cardsContext
—
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.70
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
38%
On target shareContext
38%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
60%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.63
13.10
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.80
BlocksContext
3.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
59%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
405
PassesContext
367
329
Accurate passesContext
301
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.20
FoulsContext
14.40
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km514 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel63 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 514 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
1João Valido(G)
44A. Dante
3José Fontán
5B. Popović
78Alex Pinto
21T. Fukui
89Pedro Santos
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
4J. Panzo
5A. Ntoi
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
8T. Bakoulas
17M. Vrousai
80O. Pohlmann
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rio Ave · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Arouca wins3 draws3 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.17
Over 2.517%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 10 Feb 2025Arouca1–1Rio Ave
- 1 Sep 2024Rio Ave1–0Arouca
- 19 Apr 2024Rio Ave1–1Arouca
- 10 Dec 2023Arouca2–2Rio Ave
- 28 Apr 2023Rio Ave1–0Arouca
- 12 Nov 2022Arouca0–1Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 1 |
| Arouca | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 5.00 | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 11.00 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 6.00 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Arouca | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.89 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.00 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.10 | 4.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 5.00
Red cards0.00league 0.16
Cards 5+100%league 63%
Fouls34.0league 28.4
Penalties1.00league 0.37
Home wins0%league 42%
AroucaNo previous matches with this referee.
Rio AveNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca2 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
Rio Ave1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
