Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arouca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Santa Clara. Arouca had 5.9 days of rest, Santa Clara 7.1 and had to travel 1,537 km.
Away travel1,537 kmRest days5.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Arouca41%
Draw26%
Santa Clara32%
Arouca47%
Draw25%
Santa Clara28%
Arouca41%
Draw26%
Santa Clara32%
Arouca34%
Draw26%
Santa Clara39%
Arouca41%
Draw26%
Santa Clara33%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Arouca
Santa Clara
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
28
AttackIn forecast
29
37
DefenceIn forecast
53
67
Form indexContext
67
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaSanta Clara
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
60%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.40
ShotsContext
14.00
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
29%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
61%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.20
Shots allowedContext
7.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.40
4.00
BlocksContext
1.40
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
89%
Save rateContext
82%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
455
PassesContext
364
384
Accurate passesContext
291
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.97
8.40
FoulsContext
13.60
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
+0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.40
ShotsContext
12.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
34%
On target shareContext
25%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
55%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.90
Shots allowedContext
8.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.90
3.90
BlocksContext
1.80
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
77%
Save rateContext
82%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
452
PassesContext
356
382
Accurate passesContext
286
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.70
FoulsContext
12.10
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
WWLWD
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km533 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 67 · 10 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected
Santa Clara
DWWDW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,537 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 67 · 11 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 7 Sep | 7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,537 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 533 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro
6Pedro Ferreira
8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
9Gonçalo Paciência
70Vinícius Lopes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Santa Clara · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Arouca wins2 draws1 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 33%
- 2 May 2026Arouca2–2Santa Clara
- 21 Dec 2025Santa Clara0–0Arouca
- 26 Apr 2025Santa Clara2–0Arouca
- 15 Dec 2024Arouca1–0Santa Clara
- 11 Feb 2023Arouca1–0Santa Clara
- 20 Aug 2022Santa Clara1–2Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Arouca | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.60 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.60 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.40 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Arouca | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.70 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.90 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Arouca5 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Santa Clara5 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
