Arouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Arouca were slight favourites.
Arouca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Arouca. Arouca had 4.9 days of rest, Tondela 4.9 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days4.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Arouca52%
Draw27%
Tondela21%
Arouca53%
Draw25%
Tondela22%
Arouca52%
Draw27%
Tondela21%
Arouca45%
Draw28%
Tondela27%
Arouca53%
Draw26%
Tondela21%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Arouca)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 80
Team strength
Arouca
Tondela
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
28
AttackIn forecast
16
37
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTondela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AroucaTondela
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.79
1.91
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
73%
Scored inContext
45%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
10.24
ShotsContext
10.00
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.31
34%
On target shareContext
32%
6.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.31
57%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.05
OffsidesContext
2.68
12.76
Shots allowedContext
12.85
4.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.82
3.83
BlocksContext
3.38
2.74
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.61
59%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
403
PassesContext
329
335
Accurate passesContext
260
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.36
FoulsContext
13.97
11.42
Fouls sufferedContext
12.03
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.55
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
31%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
57%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.20
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.67
BlocksContext
3.40
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
64%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
409
PassesContext
378
342
Accurate passesContext
303
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.50
FoulsContext
13.50
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Arouca
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km148 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Tondela
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel48 km300 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Arouca |
Tondela |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May | 4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 148 km | 300 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 84 | — |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
15Javi Sánchez
66Omar Fayed
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Tondela
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
32Juan Rodríguez
4Christian Marques
44João Silva
27Rodrigo Conceição
79Hugo Félix
97Cicero
48Tiago Manso
90M. Aïko
16Rony Lopes
7Pedro Henryque
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Tondela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Arouca+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Tondela+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Arouca · Home
1.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-6
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.81
Tondela · Away
0.94points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-9
- Scored
- 0.81
- Conceded
- 1.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Arouca | Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Santa Clara | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Alverca | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Estrela | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| SC Braga | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Estoril | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Moreirense | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HL 0–5 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 1–3 AL 0–4 H | L 0–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Nacional | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Casa Pia | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–5 AL 0–1 H |
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Sporting CP | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H |
| AVS | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 39 of 96 · 1.22 per game | 25 of 96 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Arouca wins0 draws1 Tondela wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 Jan 2026Tondela3–1Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Arouca | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.91 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 3.24 | 2.36 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 48% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 33% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 55% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Arouca | Tondela | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Arouca | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.69 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 9.34 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 15/32 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 13/32 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 11/32 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.94 | 2.61 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.42 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 5.36 | 5.03 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 25/33 | 67% 22/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 20/33 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Arouca | Tondela | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.50 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 5.20 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.01league 4.79
Red cards0.41league 0.24
Cards 5+58%league 57%
Fouls27.7league 26.7
Penalties0.34league 0.43
Home wins60%league 41%
Arouca4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W6 Apr 26H · Estoril3–23
- L6 Mar 26A · Famalicao0–11
- D13 Apr 25A · Benfica2–23
- L8 Oct 23A · Sporting CP1–27
Tondela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 6.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L5 Oct 25A · Rio Ave0–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Arouca32 games · scored 44 · conceded 58
9
9
0-15
1
7
16-30
7
13
31-45
11
8
46-60
12
8
61-75
4
13
76-90
Tondela33 games · scored 26 · conceded 52
6
4
0-15
2
8
16-30
2
9
31-45
5
6
46-60
6
12
61-75
5
13
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
4
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Tondela10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
