Arsenal vs Chelsea – 6 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 3 Sun, Sep 6 · 16:30 Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

2–1Full time

Chelsea 4th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were clear favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 75). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Chelsea. Arsenal had 5.9 days of rest, Chelsea 7.1 and had to travel 0 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel0 kmRest days5.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Arsenal66%

Draw19%

Chelsea15%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.91

Arsenal70%

Draw18%

Chelsea12%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.80

Arsenal66%

Draw19%

Chelsea15%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.90

Arsenal59%

Draw22%

Chelsea19%

Expected goals 1.94 – 1.02

Arsenal66%

Draw20%

Chelsea15%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.91

Over 2.5 59% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

26°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 36%

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 169

Team strength

Arsenal

Chelsea

95 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

94 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

86 AttackIn forecast 77

95 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Arsenal

Chelsea

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.50

0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 2.59

0.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext +0.91

100% Scored inContext 100%

100% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.50 ShotsContext 17.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

30% On target shareContext 34%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 14.00

61% Box shareContext 80%

15% ConversionContext 20%

6.50 OffsidesContext —

5.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

1.50 BlocksContext 3.00

— Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

100% Save rateContext 67%

63% PossessionIn forecast 32%

573 PassesContext 311

515 Accurate passesContext 239

90% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.21 Team ratingContext 7.16

8.00 FoulsContext 6.50

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

0.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

0.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

100% Scored inContext 60%

70% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.20 ShotsContext 13.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.11

30% On target shareContext 29%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

66% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 9%

3.50 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.40 Shots allowedContext 12.00

2.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.50 BlocksContext 2.70

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

86% Save rateContext 60%

54% PossessionIn forecast 49%

479 PassesContext 485

412 Accurate passesContext 415

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.77

10.40 FoulsContext 10.00

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal WW

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km325 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 80 · 6 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W31 AugA · Aston Villa1–01.7 xPts
W21 AugH · Coventry3–02.5 xPts

Chelsea WW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 81 · 6 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected

W30 AugH · Brighton4–31.3 xPts
W24 AugA · Fulham3–21.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Arsenal	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Aug	7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	325 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White

49M. Lewis-Skelly 41D. Rice

17C. Tzolis 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka

29K. Havertz

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1E. Martínez(G)

3W. Fofana 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong

21J. Hato 24R. James 45R. Lavia 7Pedro Neto

17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer

9João Pedro

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Arsenal Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Arsenal+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Chelsea+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.00

Chelsea · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

6 Arsenal wins3 draws1 Chelsea wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 10%

1 Mar 2026Arsenal2–1Chelsea
30 Nov 2025Chelsea1–1Arsenal
16 Mar 2025Arsenal1–0Chelsea
10 Nov 2024Chelsea1–1Arsenal
23 Apr 2024Arsenal5–0Chelsea
21 Oct 2023Chelsea2–2Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Arsenal	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	3.50
Conceded per game	0.00	2.50
Match goals	2.00	6.00	3.08
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	100%	59%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	53%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Arsenal	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.20
Conceded per game	0.50	2.20
Match goals	2.10	3.40	3.08
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	59%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	70%	0%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Arsenal	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.00
Corners conceded	2.00	6.50
Match total	8.00	10.50	9.18
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.50
Match total	3.00	4.50	3.93
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Arsenal	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.00
Corners conceded	3.90	5.10
Match total	8.00	10.10	9.18
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.70
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	3.50	4.80	3.93
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 169 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.91league 3.79

Red cards0.14league 0.03

Cards 5+38%league 34%

Fouls21.9league 23.2

Penalties0.22league 0.17

Home wins40%league 38%

Arsenal19 with this referee

Record11-5-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W10 May 26A · West Ham1–04
W4 Mar 26A · Brighton1–01
W3 Jan 26A · Bournemouth3–21
W1 Nov 25A · Burnley2–01
L31 Aug 25A · Liverpool0–12

Chelsea16 with this referee

Record8-3-5 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against4 · 1 Reds2

L24 May 26A · Sunderland1–25
L12 Apr 26H · Manchester City0–33
W10 Jan 26A · Charlton5–11
W18 Oct 25A · Nottingham Forest3–04
W16 May 25H · Manchester United1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.