AS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 53). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. AS Roma had 6.8 days of rest, Lazio 7.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days6.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
AS Roma56%
Draw25%
Lazio19%
AS Roma54%
Draw25%
Lazio22%
AS Roma54%
Draw26%
Lazio20%
AS Roma48%
Draw27%
Lazio25%
AS Roma57%
Draw24%
Lazio19%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 76
Team strength
AS Roma
Lazio
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
72
AttackIn forecast
53
75
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AS RomaLazio
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
81%
Scored inContext
56%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
12.78
ShotsContext
10.75
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.09
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.27
Shots in the boxContext
6.63
71%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.68
9.75
Shots allowedContext
12.86
3.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.79
BlocksContext
3.39
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
76%
Save rateContext
76%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
481
PassesContext
484
403
Accurate passesContext
419
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.53
FoulsContext
10.19
13.64
Fouls sufferedContext
14.36
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.17
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
10.10
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
35%
On target shareContext
42%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
76%
Box shareContext
63%
18%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.20
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.22
BlocksContext
3.10
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
62%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
489
PassesContext
506
410
Accurate passesContext
449
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.90
FoulsContext
9.60
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km825 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May | 7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 737 km | 825 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.4 | 6.4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
43Wesley
8N. El Aynaoui
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
61N. Pisilli
21P. Dybala
14D. Malen
Lazio
Confirmed XI
55A. Furlanetto(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
24K. Taylor
6N. Rovella
26T. Bašić
14T. Noslin
19B. Dia
22M. Cancellieri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Lazio-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.17points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-3-3
- Scored
- 1.72
- Conceded
- 0.56
Lazio · Away
1.33points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-6
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 0.72
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Fiorentina | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Bologna | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Pisa | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Inter | L 2–5 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Lecce | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Como | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Genoa | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Juventus | D 3–3 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Napoli | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Udinese | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | D 3–3 HD 1–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Torino | W 2–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 64 of 105 · 1.83 per game | 51 of 105 · 1.46 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 AS Roma wins2 draws3 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.11 – 0.67
Over 2.522%
Both scored22%
Clean sheets56% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025Lazio0–1AS Roma
- 13 Apr 2025Lazio1–1AS Roma
- 5 Jan 2025AS Roma2–0Lazio
- 6 Apr 2024AS Roma1–0Lazio
- 12 Nov 2023Lazio0–0AS Roma
- 19 Mar 2023Lazio1–0AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.39 | 2.11 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 31% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 28% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 44% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| AS Roma | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.94 | 4.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.39 | 3.84 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 7.90 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 17/36 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 11/36 | 28% 9/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 9/36 | 13% 4/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.58 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 4.80 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 22/36 | 72% 26/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 13/36 | 56% 20/36 | |
| AS Roma | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.33 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.10 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.03league 3.69
Red cards0.17league 0.19
Cards 5+64%league 34%
Fouls24.9league 24.7
Penalties0.17league 0.28
Home wins37%league 39%
AS Roma9 with this referee
Record3-0-6
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W24 Feb 25H · Monza4–00
- L22 Apr 24H · Bologna1–35
- L29 Oct 23A · Inter0–14
- W4 Jun 23H · Spezia2–12
- L6 May 23H · Inter0–23
Lazio8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- L18 Feb 24H · Bologna1–22
- L17 Dec 23H · Inter0–22
- L16 Sep 23A · Juventus1–31
- D12 May 23H · Lecce2–23
- D11 Mar 23A · Bologna0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AS Roma36 games · scored 55 · conceded 31
8
5
0-15
9
16-30
9
5
31-45
8
8
46-60
12
3
61-75
9
10
76-90
Lazio35 games · scored 37 · conceded 36
5
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
6
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
14
7
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Lazio9 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
