AS Roma vs Verona – 28 Sep 2025

Serie A Gameweek 5 Sun, Sep 28 · 14:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 7th · 9 pts · 4 played WWLW

2–0Full time

Verona 15th · 3 pts · 4 played DLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were clear favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 24). Absences weigh more on Verona. AS Roma had 3.8 days of rest, Verona 7.9 and had to travel 413 km.

Away travel413 kmRest days3.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

AS Roma73%

Draw18%

Verona9%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.64

AS Roma74%

Draw17%

Verona9%

Expected goals 2.40 – 0.75

AS Roma72%

Draw19%

Verona9%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.66

AS Roma67%

Draw21%

Verona12%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.72

AS Roma75%

Draw17%

Verona9%

Expected goals 2.44 – 0.73

Over 2.5 55% Both score 43% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani

Cards per match 3.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 28

Team strength

AS Roma

Verona

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

72 AttackIn forecast 15

75 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Verona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AS Roma

Verona

0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

0.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

75% Scored inContext 50%

75% Clean sheetsContext 25%

14.75 ShotsContext 13.50

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

34% On target shareContext 35%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

66% Box shareContext 49%

5% ConversionContext 4%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

8.75 Shots allowedContext 12.50

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

1.00 BlocksContext 3.75

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

91% Save rateContext 75%

61% PossessionIn forecast 36%

496 PassesContext 298

421 Accurate passesContext 227

85% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.60

14.25 FoulsContext 17.25

14.25 Fouls sufferedContext 7.75

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 0.77

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

90% Scored inContext 50%

60% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.10 ShotsContext 10.00

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

35% On target shareContext 31%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

62% Box shareContext 54%

9% ConversionContext 6%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.78

11.00 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

2.86 BlocksContext 3.13

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

83% Save rateContext 70%

52% PossessionIn forecast 39%

465 PassesContext 304

396 Accurate passesContext 227

85% Pass accuracyContext 75%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.00 FoulsContext 16.90

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 8.60

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Verona

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel413 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Verona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	413 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	946 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini 19M. Çelik

3Angeliño 4B. Cristante 17K. Koné 43Wesley

7L. Pellegrini 18M. Soulé

9A. Dovbyk

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Verona Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1L. Montipò(G)

3M. Frese 15V. Nelsson 5Unai Núñez

12D. Bradarić 24A. Bernede 11J. Akpa Akpro 8S. Serdar 7R. Belghali

16G. Orban 17Giovane

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Verona Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma+1.0 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Verona-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Verona · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	AS Roma	Verona
Lazio	W 1–0 A	L 0–4 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 AS Roma wins1 draws3 Verona wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.50 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

19 Apr 2025AS Roma1–0Verona
3 Nov 2024Verona3–2AS Roma
20 Jan 2024AS Roma2–1Verona
26 Aug 2023Verona2–1AS Roma
19 Feb 2023AS Roma1–0Verona
31 Oct 2022Verona1–3AS Roma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	0.75	0.50
Conceded per game	0.25	1.50
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.88
Over 1.5	0%	75%
Over 2.5	0%	25%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	43%
Clean sheets	75%	25%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	4	4

	AS Roma	Verona	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.50
Conceded per game	0.40	1.50
Match goals	1.40	2.00	2.88
Over 1.5	20%	75%
Over 2.5	20%	25%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	20%	50%	43%
Clean sheets	60%	25%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	5	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.00
Corners conceded	3.00	4.25
Match total	8.50	8.25	9.36
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	1.25	1.75
Opponent cards	1.75	2.00
Match total	3.00	3.75	3.69
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4

	AS Roma	Verona	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	3.60
Corners conceded	3.50	5.20
Match total	8.30	8.80	9.36
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	1.60	1.50
Match total	3.50	3.80	3.69
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.04league 3.52

Red cards0.04league 0.14

Cards 5+18%league 34%

Fouls22.6league 25.8

Penalties0.25league 0.20

Home wins54%league 39%

AS Roma2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W22 Sep 24H · Udinese3–02
D20 Aug 23H · Salernitana2–20

Verona3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L26 Oct 24A · Atalanta1–61
L28 Oct 23A · Juventus0–12
D2 Oct 23A · Torino0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.