Aston Villa vs Arsenal – 31 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Mon, Aug 31 · 20:00 Villa Park, Birmingham

Aston Villa 17th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–1Full time

Arsenal 9th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 84). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Arsenal. Aston Villa had 8.3 days of rest, Arsenal 10 and had to travel 163 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel163 kmRest days8.3 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1

Aston Villa26%

Draw24%

Arsenal50%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.67

Aston Villa28%

Draw25%

Arsenal47%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.55

Aston Villa27%

Draw24%

Arsenal49%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.64

Aston Villa20%

Draw22%

Arsenal58%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.87

Aston Villa26%

Draw24%

Arsenal49%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.65

Over 2.5 53% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Birmingham)

17°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 60%

RefereeJarred Gillett

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 110

Team strength

Aston Villa

Arsenal

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

83 AttackIn forecast 86

78 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston Villa

Arsenal

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

70% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.40 ShotsContext 13.40

5.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

40% On target shareContext 31%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

60% Box shareContext 67%

16% ConversionContext 11%

1.57 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.10 Shots allowedContext 11.20

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.89

3.50 BlocksContext 3.80

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

66% Save rateContext 77%

49% PossessionIn forecast 52%

397 PassesContext 460

337 Accurate passesContext 391

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.00

10.90 FoulsContext 11.00

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa L

Rest8.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km439 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 44 · 0 pts vs 0.7 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L23 AugA · Brighton0–41.4 xPts

Arsenal W

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel163 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W21 AugH · Coventry3–02.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Aston Villa	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.3Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Aug	10Premier League 2026-2027, 21 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	439 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Z. Suzuki(G)

22I. Maatsen 14Pau Torres 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash

6R. Barkley 8B. Kamara

53George Hemmings 10E. Buendía 7J. McGinn

11N. Jackson

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 3Cristhian Mosquera 4B. White

49M. Lewis-Skelly 41D. Rice

17C. Tzolis 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka

29K. Havertz

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Aston Villa Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Aston Villa-0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Arsenal+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home No home games yet this season.

Arsenal · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Aston Villa wins1 draws6 Arsenal wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.90 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

30 Dec 2025Arsenal4–1Aston Villa
6 Dec 2025Aston Villa2–1Arsenal
18 Jan 2025Arsenal2–2Aston Villa
24 Aug 2024Aston Villa0–2Arsenal
14 Apr 2024Arsenal0–2Aston Villa
9 Dec 2023Aston Villa1–0Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Aston Villa	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	3.00
Conceded per game	4.00	0.00
Match goals	4.00	3.00	2.81
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	53%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Aston Villa	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.60
Conceded per game	1.60	0.50
Match goals	3.60	2.10	2.81
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	70%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Aston Villa	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	8.00
Corners conceded	5.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	10.00	9.67
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	6.00	2.00	3.94
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Aston Villa	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.20
Corners conceded	4.50	4.50
Match total	9.80	8.70	9.67
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.70
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	3.50	3.50	3.94
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jarred Gillett 110 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 3.74

Red cards0.09league 0.05

Cards 5+36%league 32%

Fouls20.1league 22.8

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins38%league 53%

Aston Villa13 with this referee

Record6-3-4 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L4 Mar 26H · Chelsea1–43
W25 Jan 26A · Newcastle2–02
W19 Apr 25H · Newcastle4–11
W8 Mar 25A · Brentford1–02
W4 Jan 25H · Leicester2–10

Arsenal10 with this referee

Record8-0-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 0

W2 May 26H · Fulham3–00
W28 Sep 25A · Newcastle2–11
W23 Aug 25H · Leeds5–00
L3 May 25H · Bournemouth1–20
W15 Sep 24A · Tottenham1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.