Premier League Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 3 2026 · 12:30 Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston Villa
3–1 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 1.59 – 0.89
Nottingham Forest
  • O. Watkins 45’
  • J. McGinn 49’, 73’
  • 61’ M. Gibbs-White
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Aston Villa beat Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa entered as clear favourites and won 3–1 through goals from Watkins and McGinn. Nottingham Forest replied through a Gibbs-White goal. Aston Villa finished with the higher xG (1.59 vs 0.89). On the chances created, Nottingham Forest deserved more: 0.9 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Aston Villa ✓65%
Draw20%
Nottingham Forest15%

Model vs reality

Aston Villa goals
3
Model 2.22 · xG 1.59
Nottingham Forest goals
1
Model 0.96 · xG 0.89
Total goals
4
Model 3.18 · xG 2.48
Score 3–1
7%
Most likely 2–0 (10%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 62%
Both scored
Yes
Model 56%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchJ. McGinnAston Villa · 2 goals
8.3
  • RefereeSimon Hooper
  • VenueVilla Park
  • Table before kick-offAston Villa 3rd · Nottingham Forest 17th

Timeline

  1. O. Watkins 1–0Assist M. Rogers
    45’
  2. Half time · 1–0
  3. J. McGinn 2–0Assist M. Cash
    49’
  4. M. Gibbs-White 2–1Assist D. Bakwa
    61’
  5. D. BakwaYellow card · Foul
    65’
  6. ⇄ L. DigneFor I. Maatsen
    69’
  7. ⇄ J. SanchoFor E. Buendía
    69’
  8. ⇄ J. McAteeFor D. Bakwa
    69’
  9. ⇄ N. SavonaFor T. Aina
    69’
  10. J. McGinn 3–1Assist Y. Tielemans
    73’
  11. ⇄ M. SelsFor John Victor
    78’
  12. ⇄ D. MalenFor O. Watkins
    83’
  13. ⇄ L. BogardeFor J. McGinn
    83’
  14. ⇄ Douglas LuizFor N. Domínguez
    83’
  15. ⇄ A. KalimuendoFor Igor Jesus
    83’
  16. J. McAteeYellow card · Foul
    89’
  17. ⇄ Andrés GarcíaFor M. Cash
    90’
  18. L. BogardeYellow card · Foul
    90+4’
  19. Full time · 3–1

Team stats

Aston Villa11 shots · 5 in box, 6 outside
Nottingham Forest10 shots · 6 in box, 4 outside
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
73% Possession 27%
1.59 Expected goals (xG) 0.89
1.87 Expected points (xPts) 0.88
11 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 5
3 Shots off target 3
4 Blocked shots 2
5 Shots inside the box 6
6 Shots outside the box 4
645 Passes 239
90% Pass accuracy 71%
4 Corners 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
10 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 4
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
7.26 Team rating 6.42

Line-ups

Aston Villa 4-2-3-1

237.0 E. Martínez(G)
226.2 I. Maatsen ↓69’ 37.0 V. Lindelöf 47.3 E. Konsa 27.3 M. Cash A↓90’
87.9 Y. Tielemans A 447.6 B. Kamara
106.7 E. Buendía ↓69’ 276.9 M. Rogers A 78.3★ J. McGinn ↓83’
117.9 O. Watkins ↓83’
  • 23E. Martínez (G)7.0
  • 22I. Maatsen↓69’6.2
  • 3V. Lindelöf7.0
  • 4E. Konsa7.3
  • 2M. CashA↓90’7.3
  • 8Y. TielemansA7.9
  • 44B. Kamara7.6
  • 10E. Buendía↓69’6.7
  • 27M. RogersA6.9
  • 7J. McGinn ★↓83’8.3
  • 11O. Watkins↓83’7.9

Substitutes used

  • 17D. Malen↑83’6.3
  • 26L. Bogarde↑83’6.3
  • 12L. Digne↑69’6.6
  • 19J. Sancho↑69’6.3
  • 16Andrés García↑90’6.7

Unused: M. Bizot, J. Jimoh-Aloba, George Hemmings, Theodore Carroll

Nottingham Forest 4-5-1

135.3 John Victor(G) ↓78’
36.2 N. Williams 56.6 Murillo 316.2 N. Milenković 346.2 T. Aina ↓69’
296.2 D. Bakwa A↓69’ 167.3 N. Domínguez ↓83’ 86.3 E. Anderson 107.7 M. Gibbs-White 216.5 O. Hutchinson
196.0 Igor Jesus ↓83’
  • 13John Victor (G)↓78’5.3
  • 3N. Williams6.2
  • 5Murillo6.6
  • 31N. Milenković6.2
  • 34T. Aina↓69’6.2
  • 29D. BakwaA↓69’6.2
  • 16N. Domínguez↓83’7.3
  • 8E. Anderson6.3
  • 10M. Gibbs-White7.7
  • 21O. Hutchinson6.5
  • 19Igor Jesus↓83’6.0

Substitutes used

  • 26M. Sels (G)↑78’6.7
  • 12Douglas Luiz↑83’6.7
  • 24J. McAtee↑69’6.2
  • 15A. Kalimuendo↑83’6.3
  • 37N. Savona↑69’6.2

Unused: T. Awoniyi, O. Zinchenko, Morato, Z. Abbott

Player stats

Top rated
J. McGinnAston Villa8.3
2nd
Y. TielemansAston Villa7.9
3rd
O. WatkinsAston Villa7.9

Aston Villa

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
E. Martínez G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 83% 35 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.0
I. Maatsen D 69 0 0 2 (0) 0 94% 35 1 2 1/2 0/1 6.2
V. Lindelöf D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 97% 70 1 1 0/0 0/0 7.0
E. Konsa D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 93% 99 1 1 0/0 0/4 7.3
M. Cash D 90 0 1 0 (0) 1 92% 63 0 1 1/1 1/1 7.3
Y. Tielemans M 90 0 1 0 (0) 1 92% 107 4 0 0/0 2/0 7.9
B. Kamara M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 92% 93 6 4 2/5 2/2 7.6
E. Buendía M 69 0 0 1 (0) 1 83% 29 1 1 0/1 0/2 6.7
M. Rogers F 90 0 1 0 (0) 2 84% 43 0 0 0/2 2/3 6.9
J. McGinn M 83 2 0 2 (2) 0 80% 44 2 1 0/3 0/1 8.3
O. Watkins F 83 1 0 2 (2) 0 50% 12 2 0 0/0 2/0 7.9
D. Malen F 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
L. Bogarde M 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 0 0/0 1/3 6.3
L. Digne D 21 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 5 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
J. Sancho F 21 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 7 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.3
Andrés García D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
John Victor G 78 0 0 1 sv 0 55% 22 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.3
N. Williams D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 76% 21 3 0 1/1 2/1 6.2
Murillo D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 74% 27 1 2 3/3 1/0 6.6
N. Milenković D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 59% 17 2 1 0/0 2/1 6.2
T. Aina D 69 0 0 1 (1) 1 69% 13 2 3 0/0 0/0 6.2
D. Bakwa F 69 0 1 2 (0) 1 63% 16 0 0 0/0 2/2 6.2
N. Domínguez M 83 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 20 5 2 0/0 1/1 7.3
E. Anderson M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 77% 31 2 3 2/2 2/2 6.3
M. Gibbs-White M 90 1 0 2 (2) 2 73% 22 2 2 0/1 3/2 7.7
O. Hutchinson F 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 65% 20 1 0 1/2 0/0 6.5
Igor Jesus F 83 0 0 1 (0) 0 83% 6 0 0 1/1 5/0 6.0
M. Sels G 12 0 0 0 sv 0 71% 7 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
Douglas Luiz M 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 71% 7 0 1 0/0 1/0 6.7
J. McAtee M 21 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 3 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
A. Kalimuendo F 7 0 0 1 (1) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
N. Savona D 21 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 7 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.