Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Aston Villa
3rd · 39 pts · 19 played
WWWWL
3–1Full time
Nottingham Forest
17th · 18 pts · 19 played
LWLLL
Our take
Aston Villa were clear favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (87 vs 63). Aston Villa had 3.7 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 3.7 and had to travel 73 km.
Away travel73 kmRest days3.7 · 3.7Matches / 14d3 · 3
Aston Villa65%
Draw20%
Nottingham Forest15%
Aston Villa64%
Draw21%
Nottingham Forest15%
Aston Villa65%
Draw20%
Nottingham Forest15%
Aston Villa58%
Draw23%
Nottingham Forest20%
Aston Villa64%
Draw21%
Nottingham Forest15%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Hooper
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 136
Team strength
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
87
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
83
AttackIn forecast
68
78
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.95
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
74%
Scored inContext
47%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
16%
11.53
ShotsContext
12.47
4.37
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
38%
On target shareContext
32%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
63%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.26
Shots allowedContext
12.79
4.16
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.42
4.21
BlocksContext
4.53
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
67%
Save rateContext
63%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
427
PassesContext
447
361
Accurate passesContext
373
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.84
FoulsContext
10.84
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.94
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.68
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
100%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
14.50
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
44%
On target shareContext
35%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.80
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.70
BlocksContext
5.00
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
66%
Save rateContext
62%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
443
PassesContext
452
377
Accurate passesContext
380
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.60
FoulsContext
10.60
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km651 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel73 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.7Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec | 3.7Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 73 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 651 km | 350 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 6 | 2 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
3V. Lindelöf
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
44B. Kamara
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
13John Victor(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
29D. Bakwa
16N. Domínguez
8E. Anderson
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
2.44points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.78
Nottingham Forest · Away
0.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Manchester United | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| West Ham | W 3–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Brighton | W 4–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Leeds | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Bournemouth | W 4–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 A |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Everton | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Brentford | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 39 of 57 · 2.05 per game | 18 of 57 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Aston Villa wins1 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 5 Apr 2025Aston Villa2–1Nottingham Forest
- 14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest2–1Aston Villa
- 24 Feb 2024Aston Villa4–2Nottingham Forest
- 5 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest2–0Aston Villa
- 8 Apr 2023Aston Villa2–0Nottingham Forest
- 10 Oct 2022Nottingham Forest1–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 0.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 2.53 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 53% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 16% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 32% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 16% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 53% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.40 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 20% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.05 | 5.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.84 | 4.42 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 9.95 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 14/19 | 79% 15/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 13/19 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 9/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.68 | 1.68 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.58 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 4.26 | 3.63 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 13/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 10.00 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Hooper 136 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.69
Red cards0.07league 0.11
Cards 5+37%league 38%
Fouls21.7league 21.4
Penalties0.16league 0.20
Home wins49%league 46%
Aston Villa11 with this referee
Record6-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Oct 25A · Tottenham2–10
- D13 Sep 25A · Everton0–03
- W5 Apr 25H · Nottingham Forest2–12
- D13 May 24H · Liverpool3–31
- W12 Nov 23H · Fulham3–12
Nottingham Forest12 with this referee
Record2-2-8
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L5 Apr 25A · Aston Villa1–22
- W1 Feb 25H · Brighton7–01
- L23 Nov 24A · Arsenal0–32
- D31 Aug 24H · Wolves1–13
- L28 Apr 24H · Manchester City0–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa19 games · scored 30 · conceded 23
1
6
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest19 games · scored 18 · conceded 30
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
8
31-45
6
5
46-60
2
61-75
3
12
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
