Atalanta vs Sassuolo – 23 Aug 2026

Serie A Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 23 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta

2–1Full time

Sassuolo

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were clear favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sassuolo. Atalanta had 93 days of rest, Sassuolo 91.2 and had to travel 134 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel134 kmRest days93 · 91.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Atalanta63%

Draw21%

Sassuolo16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.91

Atalanta63%

Draw21%

Sassuolo16%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.89

Atalanta62%

Draw21%

Sassuolo17%

Expected goals 2.01 – 0.94

Atalanta55%

Draw23%

Sassuolo21%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.02

Atalanta62%

Draw21%

Sassuolo17%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.91

Over 2.5 56% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

25°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 52%

RefereeValerio Crezzini

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 10

Team strength

Atalanta

Sassuolo

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

48 AttackIn forecast 41

45 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Sassuolo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.00 ShotsContext 10.80

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

32% On target shareContext 32%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

68% Box shareContext 67%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.88 OffsidesContext 1.29

12.80 Shots allowedContext 14.00

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.50 BlocksContext 3.30

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

74% Save rateContext 72%

53% PossessionIn forecast 50%

488 PassesContext 422

411 Accurate passesContext 360

84% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.20 FoulsContext 11.70

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest93 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sassuolo

Rest91.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel134 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Sassuolo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	93Serie A 2025-2026, 22 May	91.2Serie A 2025-2026, 24 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	134 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

4-3-3

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

47L. Bernasconi 42G. Scalvini 3K. Kossounou 77D. Zappacosta

13Éderson 70G. Gaetano 8M. Pašalić

18G. Raspadori 9G. Scamacca 59N. Zalewski

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 31Tommaso Macchioni 26C. Odenthal 46Simone Cinquegrano

50D. Bakola 18N. Matić 17V. Adžić

45A. Laurienté 9K. Bowie 7C. Volpato

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Absences are shown before kick-off

Sassuolo Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Sassuolo-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home No home games yet this season.

Sassuolo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Atalanta wins0 draws4 Sassuolo wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.25 Over 2.575% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

1 Mar 2026Sassuolo2–1Atalanta
9 Nov 2025Atalanta0–3Sassuolo
17 Feb 2024Atalanta3–0Sassuolo
20 Aug 2023Sassuolo0–2Atalanta
4 Feb 2023Sassuolo1–0Atalanta
15 Oct 2022Atalanta2–1Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.91
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	56%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Atalanta	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	2.20	2.30	2.91
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.17
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.33
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Atalanta	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	3.40
Corners conceded	3.60	5.40
Match total	8.10	8.80	9.17
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.10
Opponent cards	1.20	2.50
Match total	2.60	4.60	3.33
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Valerio Crezzini 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.40league 3.33

Red cards0.00league 0.00

Cards 5+20%league 0%

Fouls26.2league 23.3

Penalties0.30league 0.00

Home wins40%league 17%

Atalanta1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L9 Nov 25H · Sassuolo0–30

Sassuolo3 with this referee

Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D14 Dec 25A · AC Milan2–23
W9 Nov 25A · Atalanta3–02
D18 Oct 25A · Lecce0–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.