Athletic Club vs Alaves – 13 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 13 · 17:30 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 2nd · 9 pts · 3 played WWW

0–1Full time

Alaves 12th · 4 pts · 3 played WLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Athletic Club were slight favourites.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 48). Athletic Club had 13 days of rest, Alaves 14.1 and had to travel 50 km.

Away travel50 kmRest days13 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0

Athletic Club59%

Draw24%

Alaves17%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.85

Athletic Club61%

Draw23%

Alaves17%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.92

Athletic Club59%

Draw24%

Alaves17%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.85

Athletic Club52%

Draw26%

Alaves22%

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.95

Athletic Club61%

Draw23%

Alaves17%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.92

Over 2.5 49% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 38

Team strength

Athletic Club

Alaves

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

51 AttackIn forecast 48

64 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Alaves

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

0.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

100% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.00 ShotsContext 10.33

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

33% On target shareContext 36%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

63% Box shareContext 60%

15% ConversionContext 10%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

9.00 Shots allowedContext 12.33

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

2.67 BlocksContext 3.33

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

67% Save rateContext 86%

45% PossessionIn forecast 51%

377 PassesContext 440

305 Accurate passesContext 359

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.67 FoulsContext 13.67

11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

70% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.10 ShotsContext 10.20

2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

27% On target shareContext 31%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.75

62% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 8%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.60 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

3.11 BlocksContext 2.70

1.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

61% Save rateContext 90%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

365 PassesContext 364

291 Accurate passesContext 275

80% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.95

14.50 FoulsContext 15.30

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest13 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,406 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alaves

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel50 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug	14.1La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,406 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 4Aitor Paredes 3Dani Vivian 12Jesús Areso

16Ruíz de Galarreta 18Mikel Jauregizar

9I. Williams 8Oihan Sancet 7Álex Berenguer

11Gorka Guruzeta

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Antonio Sivera(G)

22M. Diarra 14F. Tenaglia 2F. Garcés 17Jonny

8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez

10Carles Aleñá 18Jon Guridi 7Carlos Vicente

9M. Díaz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Absences are shown before kick-off

Alaves Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alaves+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Alaves · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Alaves
Real Betis	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Points	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Athletic Club wins3 draws1 Alaves wins

Goals per game0.88 – 0.25 Over 2.50% Both scored13% Clean sheets75% · 38%

11 May 2025Athletic Club1–0Alaves
15 Dec 2024Alaves1–1Athletic Club
16 Mar 2024Athletic Club2–0Alaves
22 Sep 2023Alaves0–2Athletic Club
9 Jan 2022Alaves0–0Athletic Club
1 Oct 2021Athletic Club1–0Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.65
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	33%	49%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	48%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

	Athletic Club	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.65
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	33%	49%
Over 3.5	33%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	48%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	7.33	4.33
Corners conceded	3.67	4.00
Match total	11.00	8.33	9.16
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	33% 1/3
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.67
Opponent cards	2.00	2.00
Match total	3.33	3.67	3.91
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	0% 0/3	67% 2/3

	Athletic Club	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	5.30
Corners conceded	4.11	5.30
Match total	9.22	10.60	9.16
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.30
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	3.50	4.30	3.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.37league 3.59

Red cards0.32league 0.26

Cards 5+45%league 32%

Fouls23.8league 24.3

Penalties0.18league 0.32

Home wins50%league 44%

Athletic Club3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D11 May 24H · Osasuna2–22
W19 Feb 24H · Girona3–21
W4 Jan 24A · Sevilla2–01

Alaves

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.