Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Athletic Club
10th · 44 pts · 36 played
WLWLL
1–1Full time
Celta Vigo
6th · 50 pts · 36 played
LLWWL
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Athletic Club had 4 days of rest, Celta Vigo 5 and had to travel 487 km.
Away travel487 kmRest days4 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Athletic Club40%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo31%
Athletic Club42%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo31%
Athletic Club40%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo31%
Athletic Club34%
Draw29%
Celta Vigo38%
Athletic Club41%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo31%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 41
Team strength
Athletic ClubCelta Vigo
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
51
AttackIn forecast
36
64
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubCelta Vigo
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.42
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
64%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.19
ShotsContext
9.86
4.51
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
41%
9.06
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
67%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
14%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.69
9.31
Shots allowedContext
12.06
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.23
2.31
BlocksContext
3.38
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.12
66%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
404
PassesContext
490
325
Accurate passesContext
422
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.72
FoulsContext
11.36
10.58
Fouls sufferedContext
11.81
2.03
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
8.10
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.89
37%
On target shareContext
43%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
71%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.20
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.22
BlocksContext
2.60
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
56%
Save rateContext
55%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
399
PassesContext
485
323
Accurate passesContext
416
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.66
12.20
FoulsContext
13.20
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km927 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel487 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 13 May | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 12 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 487 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 927 km | 930 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
5Yeray
2Andoni Gorosabel
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
7Álex Berenguer
20Unai Gómez
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
29Yoel Lago
32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
8Fer López
17Javi Rueda
19W. Swedberg
7Borja Iglesias
9Ferran Jutglà
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.61points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-7
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.11
Celta Vigo · Away
1.67points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-6-4
- Scored
- 1.28
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | L 0–2 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | W 3–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Alaves | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H | L 3–4 HW 1–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Girona | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A | L 0–1 AL 2–4 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Levante | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | L 2–3 HW 2–1 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Mallorca | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 44 of 105 · 1.26 per game | 47 of 105 · 1.34 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Athletic Club wins1 draws4 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.30
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 14 Dec 2025Celta Vigo2–0Athletic Club
- 19 Jan 2025Celta Vigo1–2Athletic Club
- 22 Sep 2024Athletic Club3–1Celta Vigo
- 15 May 2024Celta Vigo2–1Athletic Club
- 10 Nov 2023Athletic Club4–3Celta Vigo
- 20 May 2023Athletic Club2–1Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.42 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 2.72 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 47% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 64% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 17% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Athletic Club | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 3.97 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.92 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.41 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 24/36 | 41% 14/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 18/36 | 29% 10/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 14/36 | 24% 8/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 2.39 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 4.22 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 21/36 | 56% 20/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 16/36 | 36% 13/36 | |
| Athletic Club | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 7.15 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.80league 4.29
Red cards0.32league 0.27
Cards 5+61%league 47%
Fouls26.0league 24.5
Penalties0.27league 0.36
Home wins34%league 48%
Athletic Club4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L25 Oct 25H · Getafe0–11
- W31 Aug 25A · Real Betis2–14
- W23 Apr 25H · Las Palmas1–01
- D27 Sep 23H · Getafe2–26
Celta Vigo4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L6 Mar 26H · Real Madrid1–21
- L30 Nov 25H · Espanyol0–11
- L27 Oct 23A · Girona0–12
- L25 Aug 23H · Real Madrid0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club35 games · scored 40 · conceded 51
3
7
0-15
5
2
16-30
9
10
31-45
5
9
46-60
5
10
61-75
13
13
76-90
Celta Vigo35 games · scored 49 · conceded 47
4
7
0-15
7
3
16-30
7
11
31-45
11
6
46-60
6
10
61-75
14
10
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
5
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
7
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
