Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Athletic Club
10th · 44 pts · 36 played
WLWLL
1–1Full time
Celta Vigo
6th · 50 pts · 36 played
LLWWL
Athletic Club40.3%fair odds 2.48
Draw28.7%fair odds 3.49
Celta Vigo31.0%fair odds 3.22
Expected goals1.31 – 1.12total 2.43
Likeliest score1–113.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Athletic Club ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Athletic Club goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.6%7.36
- 1–010.9%9.21
- 0–09.5%10.55
- 0–19.2%10.92
- 2–18.5%11.81
- 2–07.6%13.21
- 1–27.2%13.84
- 0–25.5%18.16
- 2–24.7%21.10
- 3–13.7%26.99
Winning margin
6.6%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 15.10
12.0%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 8.32
21.7%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 4.61
28.7%
Draw
fair 3.49
18.4%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 5.44
8.7%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 11.43
3.9%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 25.70
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Athletic Club goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Celta Vigo goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 40.3% | 41.3% | -1.0 pp |
| Draw | 28.7% | 27.4% | +1.3 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 31.0% | 31.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 43.8% | 48.7% | -4.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.9% | 53.7% | -3.8 pp |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.31 | 1.42 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.12 | 1.20 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Athletic Club win40.3%2.48
- Draw28.7%3.49
- Celta Vigo win31.0%3.22
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw69.0%1.45
- Double chance Athletic Club or Celta Vigo71.3%1.40
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw59.7%1.68
- Draw no bet Athletic Club56.5%1.77
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo43.5%2.30
Goals
- Over 0.590.5%1.10
- Over 1.570.5%1.42
- Over 2.543.8%2.28
- Over 3.522.8%4.39
- Over 4.510.0%10.02
- Under 1.529.5%3.39
- Under 2.556.2%1.78
- Under 3.577.2%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes49.9%2.00
- No50.1%2.00
- Yes and over 2.536.3%2.76
- Athletic Club win and yes17.1%5.84
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Celta Vigo win and yes13.6%7.37
Team goals
- Athletic Club over 0.573.1%1.37
- Athletic Club over 1.537.7%2.65
- Athletic Club over 2.514.6%6.86
- Celta Vigo over 0.567.3%1.49
- Celta Vigo over 1.530.8%3.25
- Celta Vigo over 2.510.3%9.67
- Athletic Club clean sheet32.7%3.06
- Celta Vigo clean sheet26.9%3.71
- Athletic Club win to nil23.2%4.31
- Celta Vigo win to nil17.4%5.73
Handicap
- Athletic Club −1.518.6%5.36
- Athletic Club −2.56.6%15.10
- Celta Vigo +1.581.4%1.23
- Celta Vigo +2.593.4%1.07
- Celta Vigo −1.512.6%7.91
- Athletic Club +1.587.4%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored360
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result40.8%
1X2 Brier0.581
Over 2.5 called right56.7%
BTTS called right57.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 74 | 37.9% | 31.1% |
| 40–50% | 143 | 44.5% | 45.5% |
| 50–60% | 72 | 54.7% | 61.1% |
| 60–70% | 36 | 63.8% | 61.1% |
| 70–80% | 28 | 74.5% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 278 of 360 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5764 | 0.5705 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 278 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 360 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.