Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Athletic Club were slight favourites.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 56). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Athletic Club had 8.2 days of rest, Espanyol 9 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days8.2 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Athletic Club45%
Draw28%
Espanyol27%
Athletic Club48%
Draw26%
Espanyol26%
Athletic Club47%
Draw28%
Espanyol26%
Athletic Club38%
Draw28%
Espanyol34%
Athletic Club46%
Draw26%
Espanyol28%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 30
Team strength
Athletic Club
Espanyol
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
51
AttackIn forecast
36
64
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubEspanyol
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
53%
Scored inContext
81%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
12.76
ShotsContext
12.38
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.31
30%
On target shareContext
35%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
66%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.10
9.29
Shots allowedContext
12.13
3.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.64
BlocksContext
3.69
2.81
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
71%
Save rateContext
79%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
408
PassesContext
346
332
Accurate passesContext
274
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.00
FoulsContext
14.31
12.18
Fouls sufferedContext
12.31
1.65
Yellow cardsContext
1.81
0.18
Red cardsContext
0.06
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
40%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.00
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
28%
On target shareContext
34%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
64%
Box shareContext
67%
5%
ConversionContext
8%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
2.44
BlocksContext
3.70
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
68%
Save rateContext
82%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
348
PassesContext
343
269
Accurate passesContext
272
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.84
13.60
FoulsContext
15.00
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km974 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel463 km1,006 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 9La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 974 km | 1,006 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11.8 | 12 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
19Adama Boiro
4Aitor Paredes
15Lekue
2Andoni Gorosabel
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
8Oihan Sancet
7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
5F. Calero Villa
23O. El Hilali
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
11Pere Milla
8Edu Expósito
24T. Dolan
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-1.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Espanyol+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.78points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Espanyol · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 2–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Alaves | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 20 of 45 · 1.33 per game | 27 of 45 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Athletic Club wins2 draws1 Espanyol wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets0% · 17%
- 16 Feb 2025Espanyol1–1Athletic Club
- 19 Oct 2024Athletic Club4–1Espanyol
- 8 Apr 2023Espanyol1–2Athletic Club
- 4 Sep 2022Athletic Club0–1Espanyol
- 7 Feb 2022Athletic Club2–1Espanyol
- 26 Oct 2021Espanyol1–1Athletic Club
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.18 | 2.25 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 44% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 44% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 19% | |
| Games | 17 | 16 |
| Athletic Club | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.70 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.18 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.47 | 8.81 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 11/17 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 9/17 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 8/17 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.69 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 4.63 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 8/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 5/17 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Athletic Club | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.80 | 4.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.33league 4.08
Red cards0.37league 0.28
Cards 5+70%league 45%
Fouls24.9league 24.6
Penalties0.27league 0.33
Home wins50%league 48%
Athletic Club1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Jan 24A · Cadiz0–02
Espanyol2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 Oct 25A · Oviedo2–01
- W17 Aug 25H · Atletico Madrid2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club16 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
Espanyol16 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
1
76-90
Athletic Club9 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
