Athletic Club vs Getafe – 25 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 25 · 17:30 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 8th · 14 pts · 9 played LDLWD

0–1Full time

Getafe 12th · 11 pts · 9 played LDDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Athletic Club were slight favourites.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 46). Athletic Club usually keep the ball (50% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Athletic Club had 6.2 days of rest, Getafe 5.9 and had to travel 336 km.

Away travel336 kmRest days6.2 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Athletic Club56%

Draw25%

Getafe19%

Expected goals 1.69 – 0.89

Athletic Club57%

Draw24%

Getafe19%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98

Athletic Club56%

Draw25%

Getafe19%

Expected goals 1.68 – 0.87

Athletic Club48%

Draw27%

Getafe24%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.00

Athletic Club57%

Draw24%

Getafe20%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.00

Over 2.5 48% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 27

Team strength

Athletic Club

Getafe

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

51 AttackIn forecast 27

64 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Getafe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Getafe

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.68

0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

56% Scored inContext 67%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

13.00 ShotsContext 7.89

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.75

31% On target shareContext 31%

9.13 Shots in the boxContext 4.14

64% Box shareContext 45%

8% ConversionContext 13%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.88

9.22 Shots allowedContext 10.89

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

2.71 BlocksContext 2.38

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

74% Save rateContext 77%

51% PossessionIn forecast 38%

430 PassesContext 278

356 Accurate passesContext 196

83% Pass accuracyContext 70%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.68

11.78 FoulsContext 13.44

13.44 Fouls sufferedContext 15.22

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.89

0.22 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 0.65

0.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext +0.35

50% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.00 ShotsContext 7.70

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.56

30% On target shareContext 30%

8.78 Shots in the boxContext 4.13

63% Box shareContext 48%

7% ConversionContext 13%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.89

9.60 Shots allowedContext 11.30

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.50 BlocksContext 2.33

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

68% Save rateContext 77%

52% PossessionIn forecast 38%

439 PassesContext 281

367 Accurate passesContext 199

84% Pass accuracyContext 71%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.68

13.00 FoulsContext 13.40

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,173 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Getafe

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel336 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Getafe
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Oct	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	336 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,173 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 3Dani Vivian 15Lekue

18Mikel Jauregizar 16Ruíz de Galarreta

10Nico Williams 8Oihan Sancet 7Álex Berenguer

11Gorka Guruzeta

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Getafe Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13David Soria(G)

16Diego Rico 2D. Dakonam 22Domingos Duarte 17Kiko Femenía

8M. Arambarri 5Luis Milla

20Coba 23Adrian Liso 21Juan Iglesias

9Borja Mayoral

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Getafe Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Getafe+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.00

Getafe · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Getafe
Valencia	L 0–2 A	L 0–3 A
Alaves	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Sevilla	W 3–2 H	W 2–1 A
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Athletic Club wins7 draws0 Getafe wins

Goals per game1.60 – 0.80 Over 2.530% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 20%

15 May 2025Getafe0–2Athletic Club
15 Aug 2024Athletic Club1–1Getafe
3 May 2024Getafe0–2Athletic Club
27 Sep 2023Athletic Club2–2Getafe
1 Apr 2023Athletic Club0–0Getafe
18 Oct 2022Getafe2–2Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Getafe	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.33
Match goals	2.00	2.33	2.58
Over 1.5	56%	89%
Over 2.5	33%	44%	48%
Over 3.5	11%	0%
Both teams scored	44%	44%	49%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	44%	33%
Games	9	9

	Athletic Club	Getafe	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.33
Match goals	2.00	2.33	2.58
Over 1.5	56%	89%
Over 2.5	33%	44%	48%
Over 3.5	11%	0%
Both teams scored	44%	44%	49%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	44%	33%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Getafe	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	3.67
Corners conceded	4.00	4.44
Match total	10.22	8.11	9.83
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.89	3.11
Opponent cards	2.67	2.56
Match total	4.56	5.67	4.37
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	89% 8/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	78% 7/9

	Athletic Club	Getafe	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	3.50
Corners conceded	3.78	4.60
Match total	9.67	8.10	9.83
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.20
Opponent cards	2.20	2.70
Match total	4.20	5.90	4.37
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.63league 4.09

Red cards0.30league 0.28

Cards 5+67%league 45%

Fouls27.2league 24.8

Penalties0.30league 0.32

Home wins33%league 46%

Athletic Club3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W31 Aug 25A · Real Betis2–14
W23 Apr 25H · Las Palmas1–01
D27 Sep 23H · Getafe2–26

Getafe2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.4.5 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W25 Aug 25A · Sevilla2–13
D27 Sep 23A · Athletic Club2–26

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.