Athletic Club vs Levante – 8 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 8 · 15:15 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 12th · 25 pts · 22 played LDLLD

4–2Full time

Levante 19th · 18 pts · 21 played WDLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Athletic Club were slight favourites.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Levante. Athletic Club had 6.8 days of rest, Levante 7.9 and had to travel 472 km.

Away travel472 kmRest days6.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Athletic Club45%

Draw28%

Levante26%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.01

Athletic Club52%

Draw25%

Levante23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Athletic Club46%

Draw28%

Levante25%

Expected goals 1.41 – 0.97

Athletic Club39%

Draw29%

Levante32%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.13

Athletic Club47%

Draw27%

Levante27%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.12

Over 2.5 44% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.49
Matches 35

Team strength

Athletic Club

Levante

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

51 AttackIn forecast 55

64 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Levante

0.95 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.62

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.37 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

64% Scored inContext 67%

23% Clean sheetsContext 19%

13.68 ShotsContext 10.29

4.36 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

32% On target shareContext 32%

9.45 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

66% Box shareContext 66%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.24

9.68 Shots allowedContext 16.33

4.32 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.38

2.44 BlocksContext 4.43

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.86

70% Save rateContext 72%

50% PossessionIn forecast 41%

411 PassesContext 345

332 Accurate passesContext 271

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.00 FoulsContext 12.48

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71

2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.19

0.18 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 22 and 21 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

80% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.40 ShotsContext 10.20

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

31% On target shareContext 29%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

63% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.50 Shots allowedContext 15.80

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

1.89 BlocksContext 4.40

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

67% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 43%

382 PassesContext 358

297 Accurate passesContext 281

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.80 FoulsContext 11.20

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

3.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Levante

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel472 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb	7.9La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	472 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 2Andoni Gorosabel

18Mikel Jauregizar 16Ruíz de Galarreta

10Nico Williams 11Gorka Guruzeta 22Nico Serrano

9I. Williams

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Levante Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Ryan(G)

23Manu Sánchez 3A. Matturro 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

10Pablo Martínez 14U. Raghouber

9Iván Romero 24Carlos Álvarez 26Kareem Tunde

21E. Eyong

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Levante Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club-0.9 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Levante+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.55points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.09

Levante · Away 1.00points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-6
Scored: 1.18
Conceded: 1.27

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 17 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Levante
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	D 1–1 H
Sevilla	L 1–2 AW 3–2 H	W 3–0 A
Mallorca	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Osasuna	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Espanyol	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Celta Vigo	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Atletico Madrid	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Real Madrid	L 0–3 H	L 0–2 AL 1–4 H
Barcelona	L 0–4 A	L 2–3 H
Oviedo	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Getafe	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Elche	D 0–0 A	W 3–2 HL 0–2 A
Girona	D 1–1 H	W 4–0 A
Valencia	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Alaves	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Real Betis	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 H
Points	22 of 60 · 1.10 per game	18 of 60 · 0.90 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Athletic Club wins2 draws0 Levante wins

Goals per game1.60 – 0.40 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 20%

29 Nov 2025Levante0–2Athletic Club
7 Mar 2022Athletic Club3–1Levante
19 Nov 2021Levante0–0Athletic Club
26 Feb 2021Levante1–1Athletic Club
18 Oct 2020Athletic Club2–0Levante

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	0.95	1.14
Conceded per game	1.41	1.62
Match goals	2.36	2.76	2.42
Over 1.5	68%	90%
Over 2.5	41%	48%	44%
Over 3.5	18%	29%
Both teams scored	45%	52%	49%
Clean sheets	23%	19%
Failed to score	36%	33%
Games	22	21

	Athletic Club	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.90
Conceded per game	1.80	1.40
Match goals	2.70	2.30	2.42
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	44%
Over 3.5	20%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	5.55	3.83
Corners conceded	4.05	6.28
Match total	9.60	10.11	9.58
Over 8.5	73% 16/22	56% 10/18
Over 9.5	59% 13/22	44% 8/18
Over 10.5	41% 9/22	33% 6/18
Cards
Cards	2.36	2.24
Opponent cards	2.05	2.14
Match total	4.41	4.38	4.42
Over 3.5	55% 12/22	67% 14/21
Over 4.5	41% 9/22	48% 10/21

	Athletic Club	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.25
Corners conceded	4.10	6.38
Match total	9.40	10.63	9.58
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	3.30	2.30
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	5.20	4.50	4.42
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.97league 4.16

Red cards0.34league 0.27

Cards 5+63%league 45%

Fouls24.9league 24.6

Penalties0.49league 0.37

Home wins54%league 48%

Athletic Club4 with this referee

Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W6 Dec 25H · Atletico Madrid1–03
W18 May 25A · Valencia1–01
W16 Mar 24H · Alaves2–02
W22 Sep 23A · Alaves2–02

Levante2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L21 Nov 25A · Valencia0–12
D14 Sep 25H · Real Betis2–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.