Athletic Club vs Osasuna – 21 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 33 Tue, Apr 21 · 18:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 11th · 38 pts · 31 played LLWLL

1–0Full time

Osasuna 9th · 39 pts · 31 played DLWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Athletic Club were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Osasuna. Athletic Club had 8.9 days of rest, Osasuna 9.2 and had to travel 115 km.

Away travel115 kmRest days8.9 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Athletic Club43%

Draw28%

Osasuna29%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.12

Athletic Club43%

Draw27%

Osasuna30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Athletic Club42%

Draw28%

Osasuna30%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.12

Athletic Club36%

Draw28%

Osasuna36%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.26

Athletic Club44%

Draw26%

Osasuna29%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.22

Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 39

Team strength

Athletic Club

Osasuna

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 56

53 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

51 AttackIn forecast 50

64 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Osasuna

1.06 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.19

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

65% Scored inContext 68%

16% Clean sheetsContext 23%

13.65 ShotsContext 11.26

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14

33% On target shareContext 33%

9.31 Shots in the boxContext 8.17

66% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.26 OffsidesContext 2.15

9.52 Shots allowedContext 12.32

4.19 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

2.36 BlocksContext 3.41

2.97 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.52

68% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

412 PassesContext 377

332 Accurate passesContext 304

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.84

12.84 FoulsContext 13.35

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.13 Yellow cardsContext 2.32

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.16

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

70% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.10 ShotsContext 12.10

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.56

34% On target shareContext 34%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

66% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.38

9.00 Shots allowedContext 12.10

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22

2.14 BlocksContext 3.75

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

63% Save rateContext 70%

50% PossessionIn forecast 47%

412 PassesContext 391

331 Accurate passesContext 327

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.77

14.80 FoulsContext 14.70

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Osasuna

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel115 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr	9.2La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	115 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 5Yeray 2Andoni Gorosabel

18Mikel Jauregizar 16Ruíz de Galarreta

10Nico Williams 7Álex Berenguer 9I. Williams

11Gorka Guruzeta

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Osasuna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Sergio Herrera(G)

20Javi Galán 5Jorge Herrando 22F. Boyomo 19V. Rosier

6Lucas Torró 7Moncayola

21Víctor Muñoz 10Aimar Oroz 14Rubén García

17A. Budimir

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Absences are shown before kick-off

Osasuna Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club+1.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Osasuna-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.63points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 8-2-6
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.19

Osasuna · Away 0.63points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 2-4-10
Scored: 0.69
Conceded: 1.31

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Osasuna
Villarreal	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 HL 1–2 A
Getafe	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 H
Real Betis	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Girona	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Barcelona	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	L 0–2 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	W 3–1 AW 2–0 H
Elche	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Oviedo	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A
Levante	W 4–2 HW 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	L 1–3 AL 1–3 H
Sevilla	L 1–2 AW 3–2 H	L 0–1 A
Mallorca	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Espanyol	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Celta Vigo	L 0–2 A	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H
Atletico Madrid	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Real Madrid	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Valencia	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Alaves	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 AW 3–0 H
Points	37 of 90 · 1.23 per game	38 of 90 · 1.27 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

4 Athletic Club wins5 draws1 Osasuna wins

Goals per game1.40 – 0.90 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 30%

3 Jan 2026Osasuna1–1Athletic Club
30 Mar 2025Athletic Club0–0Osasuna
21 Dec 2024Osasuna1–2Athletic Club
11 May 2024Athletic Club2–2Osasuna
19 Aug 2023Osasuna0–2Athletic Club
25 May 2023Osasuna2–0Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.06	1.19
Conceded per game	1.45	1.23
Match goals	2.52	2.42	2.55
Over 1.5	74%	68%
Over 2.5	48%	45%	47%
Over 3.5	16%	29%
Both teams scored	52%	52%	52%
Clean sheets	16%	23%
Failed to score	35%	32%
Games	31	31

	Athletic Club	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	1.30
Match goals	2.80	2.60	2.55
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	47%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	5.52	3.30
Corners conceded	3.81	4.70
Match total	9.33	8.00	9.58
Over 8.5	65% 20/31	41% 11/27
Over 9.5	52% 16/31	22% 6/27
Over 10.5	39% 12/31	7% 2/27
Cards
Cards	2.29	2.52
Opponent cards	2.00	2.42
Match total	4.29	4.94	4.55
Over 3.5	58% 18/31	81% 25/31
Over 4.5	42% 13/31	58% 18/31

	Athletic Club	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	3.89
Corners conceded	3.20	5.11
Match total	8.70	9.00	9.58
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.60
Opponent cards	2.00	2.80
Match total	4.30	5.40	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 4.29

Red cards0.21league 0.28

Cards 5+38%league 48%

Fouls25.1league 24.5

Penalties0.21league 0.36

Home wins36%league 49%

Athletic Club4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D28 Feb 26A · Rayo Vallecano1–13
L15 May 24A · Celta Vigo1–20
D12 Feb 24A · Almeria0–01
W6 Oct 23H · Almeria3–02

Osasuna2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L28 Sep 25A · Real Betis0–21
L5 May 24H · Real Betis0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.