Athletic Club vs Real Madrid – 3 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 19 Wed, Dec 3 · 18:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 8th · 20 pts · 14 played LLWLW

0–3Full time

Real Madrid 2nd · 33 pts · 14 played WWDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were slight favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 64). Absences weigh more on Athletic Club. Athletic Club had 4 days of rest, Real Madrid 2.9 and had to travel 323 km.

Away travel323 kmRest days4 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Athletic Club21%

Draw25%

Real Madrid54%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.72

Athletic Club23%

Draw25%

Real Madrid52%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.69

Athletic Club22%

Draw26%

Real Madrid52%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.64

Athletic Club16%

Draw23%

Real Madrid61%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.93

Athletic Club22%

Draw25%

Real Madrid54%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.78

Over 2.5 51% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.45
Matches 40

Team strength

Athletic Club

Real Madrid

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

53 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

51 AttackIn forecast 89

64 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Real Madrid

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.07

1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.93

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 2.23

0.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

57% Scored inContext 93%

29% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.93 ShotsContext 19.50

4.07 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.86

32% On target shareContext 35%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.14

65% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.08

9.43 Shots allowedContext 10.00

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.00 BlocksContext 3.75

2.64 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

71% Save rateContext 64%

49% PossessionIn forecast 60%

407 PassesContext 574

332 Accurate passesContext 514

81% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.78 Team ratingContext 7.14

11.93 FoulsContext 10.93

12.93 Fouls sufferedContext 11.86

1.64 Yellow cardsContext 1.43

0.21 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.29

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

50% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.90 ShotsContext 20.40

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.20

31% On target shareContext 35%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.70

64% Box shareContext 61%

8% ConversionContext 9%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.50

9.40 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

3.50 BlocksContext 3.40

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

69% Save rateContext 78%

46% PossessionIn forecast 59%

361 PassesContext 551

282 Accurate passesContext 490

78% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.75 Team ratingContext 7.10

12.60 FoulsContext 11.10

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,877 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Madrid

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel323 km1,850 km in 14d

Schedule load19%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 19
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov	2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	323 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,877 km	1,850 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Unai Simón(G)

19Adama Boiro 14A. Laporte 3Dani Vivian 15Lekue

30Alejandro Rego Mora

10Nico Williams 16Ruíz de Galarreta 18Mikel Jauregizar 7Álex Berenguer

11Gorka Guruzeta

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 22A. Rüdiger 3Éder Militão 12T. Alexander-Arnold

5J. Bellingham 14A. Tchouaméni 6E. Camavinga

7Vinícius 10K. Mbappé 8F. Valverde

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club-1.1 pp
Draw-0.8 pp
Real Madrid+1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-2
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 0.86

Real Madrid · Away 1.88points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-3-1
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Real Madrid
Levante	W 2–0 A	W 4–1 A
Barcelona	L 0–4 A	W 2–1 H
Oviedo	W 1–0 H	W 3–0 A
Real Sociedad	L 2–3 A	W 2–1 A
Getafe	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 A
Elche	D 0–0 A	D 2–2 A
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 H
Villarreal	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Girona	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Valencia	L 0–2 A	W 4–0 H
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Points	14 of 33 · 1.27 per game	27 of 33 · 2.45 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Athletic Club wins1 draws8 Real Madrid wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.60 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets0% · 60%

20 Apr 2025Real Madrid1–0Athletic Club
4 Dec 2024Athletic Club2–1Real Madrid
31 Mar 2024Real Madrid2–0Athletic Club
12 Aug 2023Athletic Club0–2Real Madrid
4 Jun 2023Real Madrid1–1Athletic Club
22 Jan 2023Athletic Club0–2Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.07
Conceded per game	1.21	0.93
Match goals	2.21	3.00	2.72
Over 1.5	57%	79%
Over 2.5	36%	64%	51%
Over 3.5	21%	36%
Both teams scored	36%	57%	53%
Clean sheets	29%	43%
Failed to score	43%	7%
Games	14	14

	Athletic Club	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.10
Conceded per game	1.30	1.10
Match goals	2.10	3.20	2.72
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.36	5.92
Corners conceded	4.21	3.58
Match total	9.57	9.50	9.70
Over 8.5	64% 9/14	58% 7/12
Over 9.5	50% 7/14	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	43% 6/14	25% 3/12
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.50
Opponent cards	2.29	2.57
Match total	4.15	4.07	4.28
Over 3.5	50% 7/14	50% 7/14
Over 4.5	29% 4/14	43% 6/14

	Athletic Club	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	6.78
Corners conceded	3.70	3.00
Match total	8.30	9.78	9.70
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.50
Opponent cards	2.10	2.70
Match total	4.20	4.20	4.28
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 40 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.43league 4.05

Red cards0.28league 0.26

Cards 5+50%league 45%

Fouls24.8league 24.6

Penalties0.45league 0.33

Home wins38%league 47%

Athletic Club4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W3 May 24A · Getafe2–03
W16 Dec 23H · Atletico Madrid2–00
L30 Sep 23A · Real Sociedad0–32
L12 Aug 23H · Real Madrid0–23

Real Madrid5 with this referee

Record4-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

W13 Sep 25A · Real Sociedad2–12
W4 May 25H · Celta Vigo3–22
D2 Mar 24A · Valencia2–24
W28 Oct 23A · Barcelona2–11
W12 Aug 23A · Athletic Club2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.