Athletic Club vs Sevilla – 22 Aug 2026

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 22 · 16:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club

1–3Full time

Sevilla 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Athletic Club were slight favourites.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Athletic Club had 90.8 days of rest, Sevilla 6.8 and had to travel 703 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel703 kmRest days90.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d0 · 1

Athletic Club47%

Draw25%

Sevilla28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.14

Athletic Club49%

Draw25%

Sevilla26%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.11

Athletic Club47%

Draw26%

Sevilla28%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.11

Athletic Club39%

Draw26%

Sevilla35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.28

Athletic Club47%

Draw25%

Sevilla28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.16

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

27°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 52%

Warm

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 44

Team strength

Athletic Club

Sevilla

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

53 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

51 AttackIn forecast 48

64 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Sevilla

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

70% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.70 ShotsContext 12.20

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.88

34% On target shareContext 25%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

72% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.10

8.70 Shots allowedContext 9.10

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

1.88 BlocksContext 2.33

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

56% Save rateContext 65%

48% PossessionIn forecast 44%

395 PassesContext 337

318 Accurate passesContext 262

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.66 Team ratingContext 6.80

12.80 FoulsContext 14.50

8.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest90.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sevilla W

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel703 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 64 · 3 pts vs 1.4 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W15 AugH · Rayo Vallecano2–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	90.8La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May	6.8La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	703 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 4Aitor Paredes 5Yeray 12Jesús Areso

28Peio Canales 24Beñat Gerenabarrena

7Álex Berenguer 8Oihan Sancet 9I. Williams

11Gorka Guruzeta

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Sevilla Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

17G. Suazo 5A. López Gallo 12A. Sangante 2Juan Iglesias

18Jon Guridi 6L. Agoumé

19Oso 10Peque Fernández 30Miguel Sierra

9R. Ure

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Absences are shown before kick-off

Sevilla Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Sevilla+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home No home games yet this season.

Sevilla · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Athletic Club wins2 draws4 Sevilla wins

Goals per game1.10 – 0.90 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 30%

24 Jan 2026Sevilla2–1Athletic Club
17 Aug 2025Athletic Club3–2Sevilla
16 Mar 2025Sevilla0–1Athletic Club
29 Sep 2024Athletic Club1–1Sevilla
19 May 2024Athletic Club2–0Sevilla
4 Jan 2024Sevilla0–2Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	—	2.00
Conceded per game	—	1.00
Match goals	—	3.00	2.68
Over 1.5	—	100%
Over 2.5	—	100%	50%
Over 3.5	—	0%
Both teams scored	—	100%	54%
Clean sheets	—	0%
Failed to score	—	0%
Games	0	1

	Athletic Club	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.30	2.68
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	—	1.00
Corners conceded	—	2.00
Match total	—	3.00	9.57
Over 8.5	—	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	—	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	—	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	—	5.00
Opponent cards	—	4.00
Match total	—	9.00	5.86
Over 3.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	—	100% 1/1

	Athletic Club	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	4.30
Corners conceded	4.11	4.10
Match total	10.78	8.40	9.57
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	3.20
Opponent cards	2.00	2.60
Match total	3.40	5.80	5.86
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 44 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.57league 5.25

Red cards0.32league 0.25

Cards 5+55%league 63%

Fouls23.5league 27.8

Penalties0.30league 0.38

Home wins43%league 63%

Athletic Club3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 0

W9 Nov 25H · Oviedo1–01
D4 May 25A · Real Sociedad0–02
W27 Aug 23H · Real Betis4–24

Sevilla5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.6 Pens for · against0 · 1

L2 Feb 26A · Mallorca1–41
L23 Sep 25H · Villarreal1–22
D17 Feb 24A · Valencia0–01
L23 Dec 23A · Atletico Madrid0–13
D28 Oct 23A · Cadiz2–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.