Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Athletic Club45.9%fair odds 2.18
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.76
Sevilla27.5%fair odds 3.63
Expected goals1.54 – 1.14total 2.68
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sevilla
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Athletic Club ↓ · Sevilla → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Athletic Club goals, columns Sevilla goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.89
- 1–09.9%10.10
- 2–19.3%10.79
- 2–08.1%12.32
- 0–07.5%13.38
- 0–17.2%13.95
- 1–26.9%14.56
- 2–25.3%18.90
- 3–14.8%21.00
- 0–24.5%22.45
Winning margin
9.5%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 10.54
14.1%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 7.11
22.3%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 4.48
26.6%
Draw
fair 3.76
16.4%
Sevilla by 1
fair 6.11
7.7%
Sevilla by 2
fair 12.96
3.4%
Sevilla by 3+
fair 29.02
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Athletic Club goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Sevilla goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 45.9% | 46.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.3% | +0.3 pp |
| Sevilla win | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 51.4% | -1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 55.0% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.54 | 1.57 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Sevilla | 1.14 | 1.16 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Athletic Club win45.9%2.18
- Draw26.6%3.76
- Sevilla win27.5%3.63
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw72.5%1.38
- Double chance Athletic Club or Sevilla73.4%1.36
- Double chance Sevilla or draw54.1%1.85
- Draw no bet Athletic Club62.5%1.60
- Draw no bet Sevilla37.5%2.67
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.5%1.33
- Over 2.550.2%1.99
- Over 3.528.2%3.54
- Over 4.513.5%7.43
- Under 1.524.5%4.07
- Under 2.549.8%2.01
- Under 3.571.8%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.541.5%2.41
- Athletic Club win and yes21.4%4.67
- Draw and yes19.1%5.23
- Sevilla win and yes13.6%7.36
Team goals
- Athletic Club over 0.578.6%1.27
- Athletic Club over 1.545.6%2.19
- Athletic Club over 2.520.2%4.96
- Sevilla over 0.568.1%1.47
- Sevilla over 1.531.6%3.16
- Sevilla over 2.510.8%9.25
- Athletic Club clean sheet31.9%3.13
- Sevilla clean sheet21.4%4.67
- Athletic Club win to nil24.5%4.09
- Sevilla win to nil13.9%7.17
Handicap
- Athletic Club −1.523.6%4.25
- Athletic Club −2.59.5%10.54
- Sevilla +1.576.4%1.31
- Sevilla +2.590.5%1.10
- Sevilla −1.511.2%8.96
- Athletic Club +1.588.8%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored8
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result38.4%
1X2 Brier0.597
Over 2.5 called right25.0%
BTTS called right62.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 43.3% | 25.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 56.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 8 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 8 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.