Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Atletico Madrid
4th · 63 pts · 34 played
LLLWW
0–1Full time
Celta Vigo
6th · 47 pts · 34 played
WLLLW
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 57). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Celta Vigo. Atletico Madrid had 7.1 days of rest, Celta Vigo 6.2 and had to travel 465 km.
Away travel465 kmRest days7.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Atletico Madrid55%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo20%
Atletico Madrid60%
Draw23%
Celta Vigo17%
Atletico Madrid55%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo20%
Atletico Madrid47%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo26%
Atletico Madrid56%
Draw24%
Celta Vigo20%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 17
Team strength
Atletico MadridCelta Vigo
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
82
AttackIn forecast
36
87
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridCelta Vigo
1.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
88%
Scored inContext
82%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
12.88
ShotsContext
10.03
5.12
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.03
40%
On target shareContext
40%
8.94
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
67%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.58
10.88
Shots allowedContext
11.76
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
2.75
BlocksContext
3.31
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
71%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
502
PassesContext
488
429
Accurate passesContext
420
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.88
FoulsContext
11.44
9.41
Fouls sufferedContext
11.88
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.80
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
33%
On target shareContext
44%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
63%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.60
BlocksContext
2.56
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
72%
Save rateContext
56%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
415
PassesContext
485
347
Accurate passesContext
417
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.65
12.10
FoulsContext
14.70
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel465 km1,532 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 2 May | 6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 3 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 465 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 604 km | 1,532 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
3M. Ruggeri
17D. Hancko
2J. Giménez
18Marc Pubill
22A. Lookman
10Álex Baena
6Koke
14Marcos Llorente
9A. Sørloth
7A. Griezmann
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
29Yoel Lago
32Javi Rodríguez
3Óscar Mingueza
6I. Moriba
8Fer López
14Alvaro Núñez
19W. Swedberg
18Pablo Durán
7Borja Iglesias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.53points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-1-2
- Scored
- 2.24
- Conceded
- 0.94
Celta Vigo · Away
1.59points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.12
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | W 3–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Elche | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AL 2–4 H |
| Real Madrid | L 2–3 AW 5–2 H | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Espanyol | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Levante | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | L 3–4 HW 1–0 A |
| Girona | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 62 of 99 · 1.88 per game | 46 of 99 · 1.39 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
7 Atletico Madrid wins3 draws0 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.80 – 0.60
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 5 Oct 2025Celta Vigo1–1Atletico Madrid
- 15 Feb 2025Atletico Madrid1–1Celta Vigo
- 26 Sep 2024Celta Vigo0–1Atletico Madrid
- 12 May 2024Atletico Madrid1–0Celta Vigo
- 21 Oct 2023Celta Vigo0–3Atletico Madrid
- 12 Feb 2023Celta Vigo0–1Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.71 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 2.71 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 47% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 65% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 18% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Atletico Madrid | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.21 | 4.03 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.12 | 4.45 | |
| Match total | 10.33 | 8.48 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 74% 25/34 | 42% 14/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 19/34 | 30% 10/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 16/34 | 24% 8/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 4.32 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 22/34 | 59% 20/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 14/34 | 38% 13/34 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 4.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 3.14 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 7.28 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.40 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.65league 4.30
Red cards0.35league 0.27
Cards 5+47%league 47%
Fouls28.4league 24.6
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins24%league 49%
Atletico MadridNo previous matches with this referee.
Celta Vigo3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Apr 26A · Valencia3–23
- D1 Feb 26A · Getafe0–02
- L17 Aug 25H · Getafe0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid34 games · scored 58 · conceded 37
12
5
0-15
6
6
16-30
8
7
31-45
8
3
46-60
10
7
61-75
14
9
76-90
Celta Vigo33 games · scored 46 · conceded 44
3
7
0-15
7
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
10
5
46-60
5
9
61-75
14
10
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
