Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atletico Madrid
4th · 63 pts · 34 played
LLLWW
0–1Full time
Celta Vigo
6th · 47 pts · 34 played
WLLLW
Atletico Madrid54.7%fair odds 1.83
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.03
Celta Vigo20.4%fair odds 4.89
Expected goals1.74 – 0.97total 2.71
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atletico Madrid ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atletico Madrid goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.44
- 1–011.0%9.13
- 2–010.0%9.97
- 2–19.8%10.24
- 0–07.2%13.81
- 0–15.9%17.01
- 3–05.8%17.22
- 3–15.7%17.68
- 1–25.5%18.26
- 2–24.8%21.03
Winning margin
13.8%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 7.25
17.0%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 5.87
23.9%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.19
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.03
13.1%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 7.61
5.4%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 18.69
2.0%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 51.05
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Atletico Madrid goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
Celta Vigo goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid win | 54.7% | 55.8% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 23.7% | +1.1 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 20.4% | 20.5% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 55.3% | -4.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.9% | 55.1% | -3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.74 | 1.85 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 0.97 | 1.04 | -0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atletico Madrid win54.7%1.83
- Draw24.8%4.03
- Celta Vigo win20.4%4.89
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw79.6%1.26
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or Celta Vigo75.2%1.33
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw45.3%2.21
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid72.8%1.37
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo27.2%3.68
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.575.9%1.32
- Over 2.550.9%1.96
- Over 3.528.8%3.47
- Over 4.513.9%7.21
- Under 1.524.1%4.15
- Under 2.549.1%2.04
- Under 3.571.2%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes51.9%1.93
- No48.1%2.08
- Yes and over 2.540.0%2.50
- Atletico Madrid win and yes24.2%4.13
- Draw and yes17.6%5.68
- Celta Vigo win and yes10.1%9.92
Team goals
- Atletico Madrid over 0.582.4%1.21
- Atletico Madrid over 1.551.8%1.93
- Atletico Madrid over 2.525.3%3.96
- Celta Vigo over 0.562.2%1.61
- Celta Vigo over 1.525.5%3.93
- Celta Vigo over 2.57.6%13.23
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet37.8%2.65
- Celta Vigo clean sheet17.6%5.68
- Atletico Madrid win to nil30.5%3.28
- Celta Vigo win to nil10.4%9.65
Handicap
- Atletico Madrid −1.530.8%3.24
- Atletico Madrid −2.513.8%7.25
- Celta Vigo +1.569.2%1.45
- Celta Vigo +2.586.2%1.16
- Celta Vigo −1.57.3%13.68
- Atletico Madrid +1.592.7%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored343
Favourite won52.5%
Avg chance given to result41.2%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right57.4%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 70 | 37.8% | 31.4% |
| 40–50% | 137 | 44.5% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 67 | 54.7% | 62.7% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 63.9% | 62.9% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.5% | 85.2% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 278 of 343 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5764 | 0.5705 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 52.9% | 54.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 278 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 343 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.