Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 50). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Getafe. Atletico Madrid had 6.9 days of rest, Getafe 6 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days6.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Atletico Madrid58%
Draw24%
Getafe17%
Atletico Madrid67%
Draw20%
Getafe13%
Atletico Madrid59%
Draw24%
Getafe17%
Atletico Madrid51%
Draw27%
Getafe22%
Atletico Madrid59%
Draw23%
Getafe18%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 39
Team strength
Atletico Madrid
Getafe
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
82
AttackIn forecast
27
87
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridGetafe
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.85
0.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
85%
Scored inContext
59%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.30
ShotsContext
9.15
5.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
41%
On target shareContext
29%
9.37
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
70%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.64
OffsidesContext
2.67
10.26
Shots allowedContext
10.22
3.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
2.64
BlocksContext
2.38
2.42
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
73%
Save rateContext
79%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
516
PassesContext
286
443
Accurate passesContext
200
86%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.74
FoulsContext
13.74
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.74
1.89
Yellow cardsContext
2.81
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.70
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.60
ShotsContext
9.20
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
38%
On target shareContext
32%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
73%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
3.17
OffsidesContext
2.78
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
2.50
BlocksContext
2.44
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
67%
Save rateContext
86%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
538
PassesContext
271
462
Accurate passesContext
185
86%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.20
FoulsContext
13.90
8.10
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km744 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel13 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 744 km | 25 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
1J. Musso(G)
15C. Lenglet
2J. Giménez
18Marc Pubill
23N. González
11T. Almada
6Koke
21O. Vargas
16N. Molina
10Álex Baena
9A. Sørloth
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
2D. Dakonam
5Luis Milla
10M. Satriano
19L. Vázquez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Getafe+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.64points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 12-1-1
- Scored
- 2.36
- Conceded
- 0.86
Getafe · Away
1.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-6
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atletico Madrid | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Levante | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | L 0–3 A |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Real Madrid | W 5–2 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 51 of 78 · 1.96 per game | 35 of 78 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
6 Atletico Madrid wins3 draws1 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 10%
- 23 Nov 2025Getafe0–1Atletico Madrid
- 9 Mar 2025Getafe2–1Atletico Madrid
- 15 Dec 2024Atletico Madrid1–0Getafe
- 15 May 2024Getafe0–3Atletico Madrid
- 19 Dec 2023Atletico Madrid3–3Getafe
- 4 Feb 2023Atletico Madrid1–1Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.85 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.93 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 1.93 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 4% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 33% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 41% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Atletico Madrid | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.70 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 4.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.26 | |
| Match total | 10.37 | 8.41 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 21/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 15/27 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 13/27 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.96 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 5.26 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 16/27 | 74% 20/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 7.80 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 5.80 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 4.20
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+49%league 46%
Fouls23.7league 24.5
Penalties0.23league 0.37
Home wins36%league 47%
Atletico MadridNo previous matches with this referee.
Getafe1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D2 Jan 26A · Rayo Vallecano1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid27 games · scored 46 · conceded 25
10
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
8
5
61-75
12
7
76-90
Getafe27 games · scored 23 · conceded 29
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
6
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
9
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 21 · conceded 16
6
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
