Atletico Madrid vs Levante – 8 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 8 · 17:30 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 4th · 22 pts · 11 played WDWWW

3–1Full time

Levante 17th · 9 pts · 11 played DWLDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 44). Atletico Madrid usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Atletico Madrid had 7.1 days of rest, Levante 6.2 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days7.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Atletico Madrid71%

Draw19%

Levante10%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.69

Atletico Madrid72%

Draw18%

Levante10%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.77

Atletico Madrid71%

Draw19%

Levante10%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.70

Atletico Madrid65%

Draw22%

Levante13%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.77

Atletico Madrid73%

Draw18%

Levante10%

Expected goals 2.35 – 0.76

Over 2.5 55% Both score 45% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.45
Matches 38

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Levante

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

82 AttackIn forecast 55

87 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Levante

1.91 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.36

0.91 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.82

1.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

100% Scored inContext 82%

36% Clean sheetsContext 18%

12.73 ShotsContext 10.36

5.55 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.45

44% On target shareContext 33%

8.64 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

67% Box shareContext 70%

15% ConversionContext 13%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.33

9.55 Shots allowedContext 16.82

2.82 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.27

2.22 BlocksContext 4.45

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.73

72% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 40%

511 PassesContext 334

442 Accurate passesContext 261

87% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.45 FoulsContext 13.64

11.09 Fouls sufferedContext 10.82

1.91 Yellow cardsContext 2.09

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.09

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.10 ShotsContext 10.70

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

44% On target shareContext 33%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

71% Box shareContext 71%

18% ConversionContext 13%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.25

10.70 Shots allowedContext 17.00

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.67 BlocksContext 4.50

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

67% Save rateContext 72%

52% PossessionIn forecast 40%

484 PassesContext 338

421 Accurate passesContext 267

87% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.30 FoulsContext 13.70

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Levante

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel302 km520 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	781 km	520 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	15	13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 17D. Hancko 2J. Giménez 14Marcos Llorente

10Álex Baena 8Pablo Barrios 6Koke 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez 9A. Sørloth

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Levante Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Ryan(G)

23Manu Sánchez 2M. Moreno 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

8Jon Ander Olasagasti 16K. Arriaga 5Unai Elguezabal 24Carlos Álvarez

21E. Eyong 7Roger Brugué

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Levante Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Levante-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.67points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 0.83

Levante · Away 1.33points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Levante
Real Betis	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Real Madrid	W 5–2 H	L 1–4 H
Rayo Vallecano	W 3–2 H	L 0–3 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Alaves	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Elche	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Points	13 of 21 · 1.86 per game	2 of 21 · 0.29 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

0 Atletico Madrid wins2 draws2 Levante wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.50 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

16 Feb 2022Atletico Madrid0–1Levante
28 Oct 2021Levante2–2Atletico Madrid
20 Feb 2021Atletico Madrid0–2Levante
17 Feb 2021Levante1–1Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	1.91	1.36
Conceded per game	0.91	1.82
Match goals	2.82	3.18	2.88
Over 1.5	91%	100%
Over 2.5	36%	64%	55%
Over 3.5	18%	36%
Both teams scored	64%	64%	45%
Clean sheets	36%	18%
Failed to score	0%	18%
Games	11	11

	Atletico Madrid	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	1.80
Match goals	2.80	3.20	2.88
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	45%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	6.27	3.50
Corners conceded	2.91	6.20
Match total	9.18	9.70	9.64
Over 8.5	64% 7/11	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	36% 4/11	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	36% 4/11	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.09	2.18
Opponent cards	2.64	2.09
Match total	4.73	4.27	4.27
Over 3.5	73% 8/11	64% 7/11
Over 4.5	45% 5/11	45% 5/11

	Atletico Madrid	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	3.78
Corners conceded	3.10	5.78
Match total	9.00	9.56	9.64
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.30
Opponent cards	2.20	2.30
Match total	4.00	4.60	4.27
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.37league 4.02

Red cards0.29league 0.26

Cards 5+50%league 43%

Fouls25.2league 24.8

Penalties0.45league 0.36

Home wins37%league 49%

Atletico Madrid4 with this referee

Record1-0-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W25 May 25A · Girona4–01
L21 Apr 24A · Alaves0–23
L16 Dec 23A · Athletic Club0–21
L16 Sep 23A · Valencia0–35

Levante

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.