Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Osasuna. Atletico Madrid had 2.9 days of rest, Osasuna 4.1 and had to travel 317 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel317 kmRest days2.9 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Atletico Madrid56%
Draw23%
Osasuna22%
Atletico Madrid64%
Draw20%
Osasuna15%
Atletico Madrid55%
Draw23%
Osasuna22%
Atletico Madrid48%
Draw24%
Osasuna27%
Atletico Madrid56%
Draw23%
Osasuna22%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
26°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.1 mm
- Wind 23 km/h
- Humidity 40%
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 40
Team strength
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
82
AttackIn forecast
50
87
DefenceIn forecast
50
66
Form indexContext
50
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridOsasuna
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.95
+0.86
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.80
ShotsContext
10.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
34%
On target shareContext
43%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
59%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
1.80
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
8.80
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.80
BlocksContext
2.20
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.20
68%
Save rateContext
43%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
533
PassesContext
427
463
Accurate passesContext
353
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.00
FoulsContext
13.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.31
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.30
ShotsContext
12.20
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
34%
On target shareContext
39%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
64%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.10
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.90
BlocksContext
2.89
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
72%
Save rateContext
55%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
504
PassesContext
385
436
Accurate passesContext
312
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.20
FoulsContext
13.00
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
DWLLW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,242 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Form 66 · 7 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Osasuna
DWWLL
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel317 km168 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 4.1La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 317 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,242 km | 168 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
22Álex Grimaldo
24R. Le Normand
21C. Romero
14Marcos Llorente
10Álex Baena
5J. Cardoso
6Koke
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman
15J. David
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones
35U. Santos
22F. Boyomo
48R. Yeboah
27Íñigo Arguibide
18Raúl Moro
29Asier Osambela
6Lucas Torró
21J. Dubasin
9Raúl García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Osasuna-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Osasuna · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
8 Atletico Madrid wins0 draws2 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.70
Over 2.540%
Both scored20%
Clean sheets70% · 10%
- 12 May 2026Osasuna1–2Atletico Madrid
- 18 Oct 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Osasuna
- 15 May 2025Osasuna2–0Atletico Madrid
- 12 Jan 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Osasuna
- 19 May 2024Atletico Madrid1–4Osasuna
- 28 Sep 2023Osasuna0–2Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.60 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Atletico Madrid | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.40 | 10.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 9.00 | 10.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.60 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 4.19
Red cards0.10league 0.24
Cards 5+38%league 48%
Fouls23.7league 24.5
Penalties0.33league 0.31
Home wins45%league 44%
Atletico Madrid2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D21 Sep 25A · Mallorca1–11
- W12 Nov 23H · Villarreal3–10
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 May 25H · Espanyol2–01
- D14 May 24H · Mallorca1–10
- W17 Feb 24H · Cadiz2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid5 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Osasuna5 games · scored 5 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
