Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano – 24 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 6 Wed, Sep 24 · 20:30 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 12th · 6 pts · 5 played LDDWD

3–2Full time

Rayo Vallecano 14th · 5 pts · 5 played WLDLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 52). Atletico Madrid had 3.2 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 3.3 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days3.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Atletico Madrid62%

Draw22%

Rayo Vallecano16%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.88

Atletico Madrid63%

Draw22%

Rayo Vallecano15%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.89

Atletico Madrid62%

Draw22%

Rayo Vallecano15%

Expected goals 1.96 – 0.87

Atletico Madrid54%

Draw25%

Rayo Vallecano21%

Expected goals 1.74 – 0.99

Atletico Madrid63%

Draw22%

Rayo Vallecano16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.90

Over 2.5 54% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.6
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 112

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Rayo Vallecano

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

82 AttackIn forecast 61

87 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Rayo Vallecano

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

0.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.44

100% Scored inContext 60%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.00 ShotsContext 13.00

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

43% On target shareContext 35%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

65% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 8%

1.40 OffsidesContext 3.40

7.20 Shots allowedContext 9.40

2.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

1.75 BlocksContext 2.80

1.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

62% Save rateContext 67%

60% PossessionIn forecast 56%

571 PassesContext 469

500 Accurate passesContext 395

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.60 FoulsContext 12.20

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.41

0.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.80 ShotsContext 14.80

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

48% On target shareContext 35%

8.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

66% Box shareContext 56%

16% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.40

8.50 Shots allowedContext 9.90

3.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

2.50 BlocksContext 3.40

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

65% Save rateContext 70%

57% PossessionIn forecast 57%

547 PassesContext 471

480 Accurate passesContext 395

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.95

10.70 FoulsContext 11.20

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,098 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rayo Vallecano

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km634 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Rayo Vallecano
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep	3.3La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,098 km	634 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

5-3-2

13J. Oblak(G)

21Javi Galán 17D. Hancko 24R. Le Normand 14Marcos Llorente 16N. Molina

4C. Gallagher 6Koke 8Pablo Barrios

19J. Alvarez 7A. Griezmann

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 33Jozhua Vertrouwd 24F. Lejeune 20I. Balliu

21Fran Pérez 17Unai López 23Óscar Valentín 2A. Rațiu

9Alemão 7Isi Palazón

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid-0.6 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Rayo Vallecano+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Rayo Vallecano · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 Atletico Madrid wins2 draws0 Rayo Vallecano wins

Goals per game2.38 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

24 Apr 2025Atletico Madrid3–0Rayo Vallecano
22 Sep 2024Rayo Vallecano1–1Atletico Madrid
31 Jan 2024Atletico Madrid2–1Rayo Vallecano
28 Aug 2023Rayo Vallecano0–7Atletico Madrid
9 Apr 2023Rayo Vallecano1–2Atletico Madrid
18 Oct 2022Atletico Madrid1–1Rayo Vallecano

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	2.20	2.20	2.83
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	20%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	5	5

	Atletico Madrid	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	2.20	2.20	2.83
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	20%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	0%	40%
Games	5	5

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	6.00
Corners conceded	2.00	3.80
Match total	8.60	9.80	9.25
Over 8.5	60% 3/5	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.40
Opponent cards	2.40	1.20
Match total	4.40	3.60	4.13
Over 3.5	80% 4/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	60% 3/5	40% 2/5

	Atletico Madrid	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	6.67
Corners conceded	2.80	4.44
Match total	8.90	11.11	9.25
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.90
Opponent cards	1.60	1.70
Match total	3.20	3.60	4.13
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 112 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.29league 3.84

Red cards0.28league 0.27

Cards 5+63%league 39%

Fouls25.5league 24.7

Penalties0.29league 0.32

Home wins37%league 45%

Atletico Madrid7 with this referee

Record3-2-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W31 Aug 24A · Athletic Club1–01
L3 Jan 24A · Girona3–41
W10 Sep 22H · Celta Vigo4–12
W26 Feb 22H · Celta Vigo2–04
L22 Dec 21A · Granada CF1–21

Rayo Vallecano10 with this referee

Record1-6-3 Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds1

L4 Apr 25H · Espanyol0–42
D18 Dec 24A · Villarreal1–13
W18 Aug 24A · Real Sociedad2–14
D31 Mar 24A · Celta Vigo0–03
D27 Jan 24A · Real Sociedad0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.