Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis – 8 Feb 2026

La Liga Gameweek 23 Sun, Feb 8 · 17:30 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 3rd · 45 pts · 22 played WDWWD

0–1Full time

Real Betis 5th · 35 pts · 22 played LDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 69). Atletico Madrid had 8 days of rest, Real Betis 7.1 and had to travel 390 km.

Away travel390 kmRest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 3

Atletico Madrid55%

Draw25%

Real Betis19%

Expected goals 1.68 – 0.89

Atletico Madrid56%

Draw24%

Real Betis20%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.98

Atletico Madrid55%

Draw25%

Real Betis19%

Expected goals 1.67 – 0.90

Atletico Madrid48%

Draw27%

Real Betis25%

Expected goals 1.49 – 0.99

Atletico Madrid56%

Draw25%

Real Betis19%

Expected goals 1.75 – 0.93

Over 2.5 47% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 32

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Real Betis

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

82 AttackIn forecast 79

87 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Real Betis

1.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.64

0.77 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.27

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

91% Scored inContext 91%

45% Clean sheetsContext 32%

13.05 ShotsContext 14.77

5.41 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.91

42% On target shareContext 33%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.86

69% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.47 OffsidesContext 2.18

10.23 Shots allowedContext 12.36

2.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.23

2.75 BlocksContext 3.24

2.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.19

74% Save rateContext 74%

54% PossessionIn forecast 51%

503 PassesContext 460

432 Accurate passesContext 388

86% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.18 FoulsContext 10.68

9.91 Fouls sufferedContext 12.91

1.91 Yellow cardsContext 1.73

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 22 and 22 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.60 ShotsContext 14.90

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

38% On target shareContext 33%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

67% Box shareContext 49%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.43

10.60 Shots allowedContext 13.50

3.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.10 BlocksContext 4.00

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

69% Save rateContext 75%

54% PossessionIn forecast 53%

508 PassesContext 464

433 Accurate passesContext 394

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.70 FoulsContext 11.10

8.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km604 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Betis

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel390 km1,339 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	390 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	604 km	1,339 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 17D. Hancko 2J. Giménez 14Marcos Llorente

11T. Almada 6Koke 4Rodrigo Mendoza 20G. Simeone

22A. Lookman 19J. Alvarez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

12R. Rodríguez 4Natan 3Diego Llorente 24Aitor Ruibal

15Álvaro Fidalgo 21Marc Roca 8Pablo Fornals

10A. Ezzalzouli 11C. Bakambu 7Antony

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Real Betis-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.82points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 10-1-0
Scored: 2.36
Conceded: 0.64

Real Betis · Away 1.18points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-7-2
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.45

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Real Betis
Levante	D 0–0 AW 3–1 H	D 2–2 A
Mallorca	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	W 3–0 H
Alaves	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 H
Girona	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Valencia	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Athletic Club	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Barcelona	L 1–3 A	L 3–5 H
Oviedo	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Getafe	W 1–0 A	W 4–0 H
Sevilla	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Real Madrid	W 5–2 H	L 1–5 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 3–2 H	D 0–0 A
Villarreal	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Elche	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Espanyol	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 A
Points	42 of 63 · 2.00 per game	35 of 63 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

7 Atletico Madrid wins2 draws1 Real Betis wins

Goals per game1.80 – 0.60 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 20%

27 Oct 2025Real Betis0–2Atletico Madrid
18 May 2025Atletico Madrid4–1Real Betis
27 Oct 2024Real Betis1–0Atletico Madrid
3 Mar 2024Atletico Madrid2–1Real Betis
20 Aug 2023Real Betis0–0Atletico Madrid
2 Apr 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Real Betis

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.73	1.64
Conceded per game	0.77	1.27
Match goals	2.50	2.91	2.56
Over 1.5	77%	91%
Over 2.5	41%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	18%	27%
Both teams scored	50%	64%	48%
Clean sheets	45%	32%
Failed to score	9%	9%
Games	22	22

	Atletico Madrid	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.60
Conceded per game	0.60	1.30
Match goals	2.00	2.90	2.56
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	47%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	48%
Clean sheets	60%	30%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	6.82	4.43
Corners conceded	3.68	5.29
Match total	10.50	9.72	9.57
Over 8.5	77% 17/22	62% 13/21
Over 9.5	55% 12/22	48% 10/21
Over 10.5	55% 12/22	29% 6/21
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.77
Opponent cards	2.14	2.50
Match total	4.14	4.27	4.43
Over 3.5	59% 13/22	55% 12/22
Over 4.5	41% 9/22	45% 10/22

	Atletico Madrid	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	4.10
Corners conceded	4.60	4.60
Match total	11.20	8.70	9.57
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	90% 9/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	90% 9/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.50
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.50	4.00	4.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.41league 4.16

Red cards0.38league 0.28

Cards 5+72%league 45%

Fouls24.3league 24.6

Penalties0.28league 0.37

Home wins50%league 48%

Atletico Madrid1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L17 Aug 25A · Espanyol1–23

Real Betis4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.3.8 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

W19 Sep 25H · Real Sociedad3–13
W20 Apr 24A · Valencia2–13
D18 Feb 24H · Alaves0–05
D17 Dec 23A · Real Sociedad0–04

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.