Atletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Atletico Madrid had 14.2 days of rest, Villarreal 13.2 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days14.2 · 13.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
Atletico Madrid47%
Draw27%
Villarreal26%
Atletico Madrid48%
Draw26%
Villarreal26%
Atletico Madrid47%
Draw27%
Villarreal26%
Atletico Madrid40%
Draw28%
Villarreal32%
Atletico Madrid48%
Draw26%
Villarreal26%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 25
Team strength
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
81
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
82
AttackIn forecast
76
87
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Atletico MadridVillarreal
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.33
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
2.02
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.58
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.65
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
13.33
ShotsContext
17.33
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.67
40%
On target shareContext
39%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.67
62%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.67
OffsidesContext
—
6.67
Shots allowedContext
6.67
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.67
1.00
BlocksContext
3.00
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
56%
Save rateContext
88%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
561
PassesContext
522
486
Accurate passesContext
462
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.31
13.67
FoulsContext
8.67
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.33
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
0.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
13.50
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
46%
On target shareContext
39%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.88
68%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.60
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.00
BlocksContext
3.78
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
73%
Save rateContext
81%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
527
PassesContext
429
457
Accurate passesContext
370
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.18
11.40
FoulsContext
9.70
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atletico Madrid
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel311 km1,532 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atletico Madrid |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.2La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.2La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,532 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
3M. Ruggeri
15C. Lenglet
24R. Le Normand
14Marcos Llorente
23N. González
6Koke
8Pablo Barrios
20G. Simeone
19J. Alvarez
7A. Griezmann
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
23Sergi Cardona
12Renato Veiga
8J. Foyth
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
10Dani Parejo
16T. Partey
17T. Buchanan
9G. Mikautadze
19N. Pépé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atletico Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Villarreal+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Atletico Madrid · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Villarreal · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Atletico Madrid wins6 draws1 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.30
Over 2.560%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 25 Jan 2025Atletico Madrid1–1Villarreal
- 19 Aug 2024Villarreal2–2Atletico Madrid
- 1 Apr 2024Villarreal1–2Atletico Madrid
- 12 Nov 2023Atletico Madrid3–1Villarreal
- 4 Jun 2023Villarreal2–2Atletico Madrid
- 21 Aug 2022Atletico Madrid0–2Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 7.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 7.66 | 8.33 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.50 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.64league 3.69
Red cards0.24league 0.26
Cards 5+56%league 34%
Fouls25.2league 24.7
Penalties0.16league 0.31
Home wins36%league 43%
Atletico Madrid3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D19 Dec 23H · Getafe3–33
- W8 Oct 23H · Real Sociedad2–13
- W28 Aug 23A · Rayo Vallecano7–03
Villarreal4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 May 25A · Barcelona3–20
- W27 Apr 25H · Espanyol1–04
- W27 Jan 24A · Barcelona5–34
- L22 May 21A · Real Madrid1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atletico Madrid3 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
2
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Villarreal3 games · scored 8 · conceded 1
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
7
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
5
0-15
5
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
