Auxerre vs LE Havre – 26 Oct 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 26 · 16:15 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre

Auxerre 15th · 7 pts · 8 played LWLLD

0–1Full time

LE Havre 16th · 6 pts · 8 played LDDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Auxerre were slight favourites.

Auxerre were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Auxerre. Auxerre had 7 days of rest, LE Havre 7.9 and had to travel 316 km.

Away travel316 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Auxerre48%

Draw27%

LE Havre25%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.07

Auxerre50%

Draw26%

LE Havre24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.09

Auxerre49%

Draw26%

LE Havre24%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.04

Auxerre41%

Draw28%

LE Havre32%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.20

Auxerre49%

Draw26%

LE Havre25%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.12

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Auxerre)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 4

Team strength

Auxerre

LE Havre

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

39 AttackIn forecast 20

25 DefenceIn forecast 22

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Auxerre

LE Havre

0.88 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.04 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

75% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

10.50 ShotsContext 10.88

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

31% On target shareContext 32%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.13

58% Box shareContext 56%

8% ConversionContext 12%

4.00 OffsidesContext 1.83

12.13 Shots allowedContext 8.75

4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.57

3.57 BlocksContext 2.17

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43

74% Save rateContext 53%

44% PossessionIn forecast 44%

367 PassesContext 384

290 Accurate passesContext 314

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.67

12.63 FoulsContext 14.50

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.63

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.70 ShotsContext 10.70

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

31% On target shareContext 35%

5.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

57% Box shareContext 56%

9% ConversionContext 13%

3.25 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.50 Shots allowedContext 9.80

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

3.22 BlocksContext 2.86

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

72% Save rateContext 51%

45% PossessionIn forecast 45%

385 PassesContext 389

311 Accurate passesContext 318

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.40 FoulsContext 13.60

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km784 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

LE Havre

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel316 km1,597 km in 14d

Schedule load11%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Auxerre	LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Oct	7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	316 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	784 km	1,597 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16D. Léon(G)

92C. Akpa 4F. Sierralta 29M. Senaya

14G. Mensah 42E. Owusu 17O. El Azzouzi 7J. Casimir

19D. Namaso 10L. Sinayoko

9S. Mara

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

LE Havre Confirmed XI

4-1-3-2

99M. Diaw(G)

18Y. Zouaoui 93A. Sangante 6É. Youté 7L. Nego

15A. Seko

94A. Touré 14R. Ndiaye 8Y. Kechta

45I. Soumaré 70M. Samatta

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Auxerre Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

LE Havre Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Auxerre-1.0 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
LE Havre+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

LE Havre · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Auxerre	LE Havre
Rennes	D 2–2 A	D 2–2 H
Lens	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 H
Monaco	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
Nice	L 1–3 A	W 3–1 H
Lorient	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Points	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game	5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Auxerre wins0 draws2 LE Havre wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

4 May 2025Auxerre1–2LE Havre
1 Sep 2024LE Havre3–1Auxerre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Auxerre	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	1.25
Conceded per game	1.50	2.00
Match goals	2.38	3.25	2.64
Over 1.5	63%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	63%	49%
Over 3.5	25%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	53%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	8	8

	Auxerre	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	0.88	1.25
Conceded per game	1.50	2.00
Match goals	2.38	3.25	2.64
Over 1.5	63%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	63%	49%
Over 3.5	25%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	53%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Auxerre	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	3.50
Corners conceded	4.50	3.00
Match total	8.75	6.50	9.48
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	17% 1/6
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	0% 0/6
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	0% 0/6
Cards
Cards	2.88	1.88
Opponent cards	3.25	2.38
Match total	6.13	4.26	4.12
Over 3.5	88% 7/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	25% 2/8

	Auxerre	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	3.25
Corners conceded	4.40	3.88
Match total	8.50	7.13	9.48
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	25% 2/8
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	13% 1/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.70
Opponent cards	2.70	2.40
Match total	5.50	4.10	4.12
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.81

Red cards0.25league 0.30

Cards 5+25%league 38%

Fouls22.0league 24.5

Penalties0.50league 0.53

Home wins75%league 53%

Auxerre

No previous matches with this referee.

LE Havre

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.