Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lille were slight favourites.
Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 24). Lille usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Auxerre had 7 days of rest, Lille 2.9 and had to travel 315 km.
Away travel315 kmRest days7 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Auxerre22%
Draw25%
Lille53%
Auxerre23%
Draw25%
Lille52%
Auxerre22%
Draw25%
Lille53%
Auxerre17%
Draw23%
Lille60%
Auxerre23%
Draw25%
Lille52%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 92
Team strength
Auxerre
Lille
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
39
AttackIn forecast
42
25
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreLille
0.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.93
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
53%
Scored inContext
73%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.60
ShotsContext
14.47
3.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.87
33%
On target shareContext
34%
6.29
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
60%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.62
10.93
Shots allowedContext
9.07
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
2.58
BlocksContext
2.50
3.07
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.36
72%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
367
PassesContext
483
298
Accurate passesContext
410
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.20
FoulsContext
12.53
14.13
Fouls sufferedContext
12.53
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
40%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
39%
6.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
58%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.60
Shots allowedContext
7.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
2.13
BlocksContext
2.50
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
72%
Save rateContext
75%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
379
PassesContext
519
311
Accurate passesContext
447
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.90
13.20
FoulsContext
11.20
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lille
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel315 km1,532 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Lille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 315 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,532 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 20.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
22F. Oppegård
92C. Akpa
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
5K. Danois
17O. El Azzouzi
34R. Matondo
10L. Sinayoko
19D. Namaso
7J. Casimir
Lille
Confirmed XI
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud
23A. Mandi
3N. Ngoy
12T. Meunier
6N. Bentaleb
21B. André
11O. Sahraoui
10H. Haraldsson
8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lille-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
1.25points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-4
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 0.88
Lille · Away
1.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-3
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Metz | W 3–1 H | W 6–1 H |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 A | W 4–2 H |
| Lyon | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Monaco | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Nice | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lorient | W 1–0 H | W 7–1 A |
| Points | 11 of 42 · 0.79 per game | 28 of 42 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Auxerre wins2 draws2 Lille wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 20 Apr 2025Lille3–1Auxerre
- 10 Jan 2025Auxerre0–0Lille
- 22 Apr 2023Auxerre1–1Lille
- 7 Aug 2022Lille4–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.73 | 1.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 3.07 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 27% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Auxerre | Lille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.60 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 6.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.87 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.14 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 6/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 4.27 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 11/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Auxerre | Lille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.10 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.90 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.71
Red cards0.27league 0.31
Cards 5+51%league 36%
Fouls22.2league 24.2
Penalties0.36league 0.48
Home wins42%league 51%
Auxerre3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L4 May 25H · LE Havre1–22
- D6 Dec 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–02
- L30 Apr 23A · Marseille1–20
Lille7 with this referee
Record6-1-0
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W8 Mar 25H · Montpellier1–02
- D4 Jan 25H · Nantes1–11
- W17 Feb 24H · LE Havre3–02
- W2 Apr 23H · Lorient3–13
- W14 Oct 22A · Strasbourg3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre15 games · scored 11 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Lille15 games · scored 29 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
16
3
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
