Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were slight favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 22). Absences weigh more on Lyon. Auxerre had 13.9 days of rest, Lyon 13.8 and had to travel 249 km.
Away travel249 kmRest days13.9 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Auxerre23%
Draw25%
Lyon51%
Auxerre23%
Draw25%
Lyon52%
Auxerre22%
Draw25%
Lyon53%
Auxerre18%
Draw23%
Lyon59%
Auxerre24%
Draw25%
Lyon51%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 81
Team strength
Auxerre
Lyon
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
39
AttackIn forecast
55
25
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreLyon
0.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
50%
Scored inContext
92%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.17
ShotsContext
11.50
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
31%
On target shareContext
35%
5.91
Shots in the boxContext
7.64
59%
Box shareContext
64%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.83
OffsidesContext
1.70
11.50
Shots allowedContext
10.92
4.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.18
2.80
BlocksContext
4.36
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
71%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
377
PassesContext
446
305
Accurate passesContext
383
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.50
FoulsContext
14.17
14.83
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.25
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
40%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.40
ShotsContext
11.40
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
27%
On target shareContext
32%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
59%
Box shareContext
61%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.00
Shots allowedContext
9.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.56
BlocksContext
3.56
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
70%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
379
PassesContext
482
307
Accurate passesContext
417
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.90
FoulsContext
12.80
15.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel249 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 13.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 249 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 622 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
92C. Akpa
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
5K. Danois
17O. El Azzouzi
34R. Matondo
19D. Namaso
9S. Mara
10L. Sinayoko
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
8C. Tolisso
6F. Tessmann
17Afonso Moreira
44Khalis Merah
7A. Karabec
20M. Satriano
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+1.0 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Lyon-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
1.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-4
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lyon · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| Angers | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Lens | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nice | L 1–3 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 24 · 0.50 per game | 12 of 24 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Auxerre wins1 draws2 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 13 Apr 2025Auxerre1–3Lyon
- 27 Oct 2024Lyon2–2Auxerre
- 17 Feb 2023Auxerre2–1Lyon
- 31 Aug 2022Lyon2–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.58 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 2.75 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 58% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Auxerre | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.90 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.58 | 5.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.17 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 10.58 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 4/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.58 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.58 | 4.92 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Auxerre | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.30 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 4.70 | 4.21 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.54league 3.84
Red cards0.26league 0.33
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls24.1league 24.2
Penalties0.26league 0.48
Home wins37%league 52%
Auxerre5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L27 Sep 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- L20 Apr 25A · Lille1–32
- D12 Feb 23A · Angers1–10
- L13 Nov 22A · Paris Saint Germain0–50
- L11 Sep 22A · Rennes0–51
Lyon11 with this referee
Record5-3-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L5 Oct 25H · Toulouse1–21
- W30 Aug 24H · Strasbourg4–33
- D30 Mar 24H · Reims1–12
- L26 Jan 24H · Rennes2–32
- L23 Sep 23A · Stade Brestois 290–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre12 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Lyon12 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
